Will solar power still be worth it in 2026—despite the CfD requirement, the phase-out of the EEG, and the debate over module prices?
Two risks are causing uncertainty in the PV market in 2026: the mandatory CfD requirement effective July 17, 2027, and the phase-out of EEG subsidies on December 31, 2026. The third risk—module prices—disappears upon closer inspection. For investors, businesses, and self-employed professionals, photovoltaics remains attractive nonetheless—offering a 6–10% annual return, with tax benefits of up to 12%.
The short answer
Photovoltaics will continue to be a worthwhile investment in 2026—especially for investors, commercial enterprises, and self-employed professionals. Three regulatory changes are causing uncertainty in the market: the planned CfD requirement effective July 17, 2027; the expiration of the EEG subsidy authorization on December 31, 2026; and the debate over rising module prices. The price increase seen in the first half of the year has leveled off since July 2026, and for TOPCon modules, the trend is even pointing slightly downward. Nevertheless, data from Fraunhofer ISE, BNetzA market values, and portfolio data from the Helm Group show: Commercial direct investments starting at €100,000 continue to yield returns of 6–10% per year, while commercial rooftop systems with high self-consumption pay for themselves in 5–9 years. Those who invest in 2026 are taking advantage of the last window of opportunity with fixed EEG feed-in tariffs and maximum tax benefits.
Many people are asking: Will solar power still be worth it in 2026? This question is coming up more often than ever before. This article is aimed at investors, businesses, and homeowners who want to know whether a solar power system will still be worth it in 2026 and which factors are key. The Skeptic’s Guide provides an honest assessment of the three major headlines and shows for which target groups solar power will continue to be worthwhile—and for which it won’t. Our guide to EEG feed-in tariffs in 2026 offers a general overview of the tariff situation.
1. Why, in 2026 in particular, many people doubt whether solar power is still worth it
In 2025 and early 2026, three developments converged that gave the public the impression that the PV system business model was in the process of being dismantled.
The Solar Peak Act of February 25, 2025 (Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51) established for the first time that systems with a capacity of 2 kWp or more would no longer receive EEG remuneration during periods of negative day-ahead electricity prices. In 2025, there were 573 hours of negative prices in Germany—a figure that stood at around 450 hours in 2024. Anyone operating a system with full feed-in actually loses revenue during these hours.
At the same time, it is becoming apparent at the European level that the EU state aid approval for the German EEG system will expire on December 31, 2026. The government’s draft of the EEG 2027, which the Federal Cabinet approved on July 29, 2026, stipulates that for new plants with a capacity of 100 kW or more, so-called Contracts for Difference (CfDs) will become mandatory instead of fixed feed-in tariffs—effective July 17, 2027. We examine the regulatory details in our background article on the 2027 CfD requirement.
The third headline concerned the modules themselves. Between January and April 2026, module prices rose for four consecutive months—the first significant increase in a multi-year period of declining system costs. This rise has leveled off since July 2026.
What is noteworthy is the rationale that was almost always cited: the elimination of China’s export tax rebate as of April 1, 2026. It doesn’t hold water. According to pvXchange, the elimination had been priced in for months, and polysilicon prices actually fell during that same period. The actual drivers were production cuts in China and a surge in demand—both of which have since subsided. Anyone making projections for 2026 should therefore neither expect module prices to continue rising nor anticipate them to fall.
These three changes are real. However, they do not make photovoltaics uneconomical—they simply change which types of systems make sense for which investor groups and when investments should be made.
2. An Honest Assessment of the Three Risk Factors
A nuanced assessment of the three risk factors reveals who is realistically most affected.
| Risk factor | Particularly effective | Effect | antidote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Peak Act (negative prices) | Full-input systems without storage | average – 573 hours without pay in 2025 | Increase self-consumption, battery storage, direct sales |
| CfD requirement effective July 17, 2027 | New installations ≥ 100 kW after the effective date | High (for large-scale projects) – Revenue risk in the event of low market prices | Commissioning before July 17, 2027 guarantees a fixed EEG feed-in tariff for 20 years |
| Module Price Trends in 2026 | Acquisitions in the First Half of 2026 | low – the increase has leveled off since July; modules account for about one-fifth of total costs | No action needed; the policy levers are many times more effective |
| Sources: Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51 (Solar Peak Act) · BMWE Government Draft of the EEG 2027, Cabinet Resolution of July 29, 2026 · pv magazine / pvXchange July 2026 · Fraunhofer ISE “Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany,” as of January 15, 2026. | |||
The Solar Peak Act does not apply to every system
The 573 hours with negative prices in 2025 account for about 6.5% of the total hours in the year. For a system with a 70% self-consumption rate and battery storage, the impact is minimal—during these hours, the electricity is either temporarily stored in the battery or consumed on-site. For systems that feed all their electricity into the grid without storage, however, the effect can account for 5–8% of annual revenue. Commercial direct investments and larger PV systems starting at 100 kWp are structurally different due to direct marketing and their self-consumption model—they avoid the “Spitzengesetz” effect. A detailed analysis of the impact of negative electricity prices on PV investors can be found in the specific guide on this topic.
Those planning new systems in 2026 will therefore approach sizing differently: self-consumption and storage will become the standard strategy. In its Solarisator tool, HTW Berlin has shown that a 10-kWp system with a 10-kWh storage unit achieves self-consumption rates of 60–70%—without storage, the rate is only 30–40%.
The planned deferral of payments starting in 2027
Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are new in Germany but have been established for years in other EU countries (the United Kingdom, France, Italy). They guarantee a minimum price per kWh but deduct revenues above that price. This reduces returns, especially during periods of high prices. We have dedicated a separate background article to this topic— the 2027 CfD mandate —which examines the government’s draft bill and the EU electricity market reform in detail.
Important: Anyone who commissions a system before July 17, 2027, will be subject to the old compensation structure with a fixed feed-in tariff for 20 years. According to the government’s draft bill, systems ≤ 25 kWp may remain exempt from the CfD requirement even after 2027—though this has not yet been enacted into law and depends on the final legislative process. An overview of the current 2026 feed-in rates by system type and the expected rate reductions can be found in the Feed-in Rates Guide.
The module price is the smallest of the three levers
Higher module prices may sound like a lot, but they only affect the cost of the modules—and according to Fraunhofer ISE, that accounts for only about one-fifth of the total cost. For a 30-kWp commercial system costing around €27,000 net, a 10 percent change in module prices shifts the acquisition costs by about €500–600. When calculated in terms of electricity generation costs over the system’s lifetime, this amounts to a fraction of a cent per kilowatt-hour.
The price of modules hasn't been rising since July 2026 anyway. So it's not a valid argument against making an investment—nor is it a valid argument for waiting for cheaper modules.
In contrast, there are the combined tax incentives: the investment tax credit, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation can make up to 77.5% of the acquisition costs tax-deductible in the first two years. A detailed calculation of this can be found in our article on special depreciation PV 2026 + IAB.
3. Is a solar power system still worth it?—The numbers speak for themselves
Asking in general terms whether solar power is worth it is too vague. The answer depends on three factors: the type of system, the proportion of self-consumption, and the investor’s tax profile.
| System type | Return / Payback Period | Requirement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial direct investment starting at 100 kWp | 6–10% annual return (10–12% after tax) | Minimum investment: €100,000 | Helm Group Portfolio Data 2024 |
| Commercial roof system, 30–100 kWp, self-consumption | 5–9-year payback period | 70–90% self-consumption | Fraunhofer ISE / BSW Solar Q1 2026 |
| Industrial roof 100–500 kWp | 5–8-year payback period, 6–10% IRR | Load profile with high daily consumption | Fraunhofer ISE / BSW Solar Q1 2026 |
| Ground-Mounted Solar Plant Direct Sales | 10–14 years payback period | PPA or EEG tender | BSW Solar / Finanztip 2025 |
| Investment for freelancers starting at €100,000 | Up to €60,900 in tax savings on a €200,000 investment (2 years) | Marginal tax rate of 42%+, IAB authorization | § 7g of the Income Tax Act / Invoice from Logic Energy |
| Sources: Fraunhofer ISE, “Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany,” January 15, 2026 · BSW Solar Price Monitor, Q1 2026 · Federal Network Agency, EEG Feed-in Tariffs effective August 1, 2026 · Finanztip, Profitability Analysis 2025 · Helm Group, Portfolio Data 2024. | |||
The range of responses shows that the question “Is a solar power system worth it?” has not one, but five answers. An investor who puts €100,000 of their own capital into a direct investment in 2026 will have a different financial outlook than a business with its own facility or a freelancer with a high tax profile.
According to Fraunhofer ISE, the projected solar power output per kWp of module capacity (kilowatt peak) is approximately 1,000–1,100 kWh per year in southern Germany and 850–950 kWh in northern Germany. A 100-kWp commercial system therefore generates 85,000–110,000 kWh of solar power annually. When used commercially, this output typically covers 60–90% of the on-site energy needs of a logistics warehouse, production facility, or cold storage facility. With 75% self-consumption and a commercial electricity price of 28 ct/kWh, this results in annual savings from self-consumption of approximately 17,850–23,100 €, supplemented by EEG feed-in tariffs or PPA revenues for the portion fed into the grid.
A direct investment starting at €100,000 in equity yields a return of 6–10% per year before taxes—with IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation, the effective return for investors with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher rises to 10–12% per year. The return per euro invested is thus significantly higher than that of traditional alternatives such as money market accounts (1.9–2.3% per year with inflation at 2.8%) or German government bonds (~3%). However, this calculation doesn’t hold true in every situation—the next section shows when the statement “Photovoltaics aren’t worth it” is actually correct.
4. Solar Power Isn't Worth It—When This Statement Is Actually True
The statement “Photovoltaics are no longer worth it” is often used as a blanket statement—and, taken at face value, is not true. However, there are three specific scenarios in which it does apply:
- Poor site quality. A PV system installed on a north-facing sloped roof or one subject to significant shading may yield less than 70% of the expected south-facing output. The output then drops from 1,000 kWh/kWp to 600–700 kWh/kWp, and the payback period extends to 18–22 years. While not financially viable, it remains a sensible measure for reducing CO₂ emissions.
- Full-feed-in without storage under the Solar Peak Act. A system designed solely for full feed-in—with no option for self-consumption and no battery storage— accepts a loss of revenue during 573 hours of negative prices (as of 2025). The trend is upward—Fraunhofer ISE expects the number of hours with negative prices to continue rising through 2030.
- Systems under 30 kWp without a sufficient tax profile. Systems under 30 kWp per building unit fall under the tax exemption provided by Section 3, No. 72 of the Income Tax Act (EStG)—which systematically excludes the investment deduction and special depreciation. Anyone with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher thus loses the greatest return lever and is better off with commercial systems or direct investments starting at 100 kWp (see “Photovoltaics as an Investment”).
In all other scenarios—with good roof orientation, self-consumption, or, for systems of 100 kWp or more, a commercial tax structure—photovoltaics will remain economically attractive in 2026. The most significant factor is always self-consumption—the next section explains why it has a greater impact on the payback period than the system price.
5. When will a solar power system actually pay for itself in 2026?
Self-consumption rate outweighs system cost
Self-consumption refers to the portion of self-generated solar power that is used directly on-site rather than being fed into the public grid. The higher the self-consumption rate, the more cost-effective the PV system—because self-generated electricity (production costs of 4–10 ct/kWh) is significantly cheaper than electricity purchased from the grid (commercial end customers: 25–35 ct/kWh, including grid fees and concession charges). With battery storage, the self-consumption rate in commercial systems can be increased to 70–90%. For direct investments without an on-site consumption point, direct marketing (PPA, market-based solar pricing, or, in the future, CfD) serves as the revenue source instead.
The key factor in determining the payback period is not the cost of the system, but the self-consumption rate. This is due to the difference between the electricity purchase price and the EEG feed-in tariff.
One kWh of self-consumed electricity saves 35–38 cents (residential) or 25–35 cents (commercial), while a kilowatt-hour fed into the grid—for systems commissioned on or after August 1, 2026—will yield only 7.70 cents per kWh in EEG feed-in tariffs (partial feed-in up to 10 kWp; Federal Network Agency, valid August 1, 2026–January 31, 2027). The difference is therefore around 27–30 cents per kilowatt-hour. Those who increase their self-consumption from 30% to 70% shift 40% of their annual generation from the low feed-in tariff to the high savings—and often shorten the payback period by 3–5 years. If you’re looking for a specific calculation for your own situation, you can find online calculators at Finanztip or BSW Solar; the individual applicability always depends on electricity demand, system size, and load profile.
A Reality Check for a Standard 10-kWp System and a 100-kWp Commercial System
When it comes to payback, the module price is of secondary importance. Since modules account for only about one-fifth of the total cost, even a 10-percent price change shifts the cost of a 10-kWp system with storage at €18,000 by about €350–400 and that of a 100-kWp commercial system at €90,000–110,000 (net, Fraunhofer ISE) by about 1,800–2,200 €. With a 6–10% return on investment per year, that amounts to weeks, not years. The self-consumption rate is a far more decisive factor—and, unlike the global market price for modules, it can actually be influenced.
Sector Integration: Heat Pumps and Electric Cars as Profit Boosters
One factor that should not be underestimated in 2026 is sector coupling—the integration of a PV system with a heat pump, process heat, or electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It is the most important lever for shortening the payback period because it covers a larger portion of the household’s electricity needs. The Fraunhofer ISE study “WP-QS in Existing Buildings” (November 2025, a four-year field study of 77 heat pump systems) shows that with PV + heat pump + storage, the share of self-consumption rises to up to 83% and the degree of self-sufficiency to up to 62%. For commercial businesses with vehicle fleets, e-mobility serves as a similar lever: Those who prefer to charge their own electric vehicles using solar power shift additional electricity demand from 28–35 ct/kWh purchased from the grid to approximately 5–12 ct/kWh through self-charging. The following three profiles illustrate how these levers specifically impact different types of investors.
What is the specific return on your investment?
Logic Energy designs, builds, and operates turnkey PV systems for investors, commercial customers, and industrial clients—with transparent calculations of returns, tax implications, and payback periods tailored to your specific situation. The contractual partner for direct investments is mediplan Helm e.K., a partnership with personal liability of the owners.
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6. Photovoltaic Returns in 2026: Three Investor Profiles, Three Answers
The general question, “Is solar power worth it?” can be broken down into three investor profiles with different return-on-investment models—all three involve direct investment scenarios, not traditional residential solar systems.
Investors with at least €100,000 in equity
Here, the solar power system becomes a tax-efficient investment. The combination of the investment deduction (50% upfront), special depreciation (40% over 5 years), and declining-balance depreciation (15% per year, limited until December 31, 2027) allows up to 77.5% of the acquisition costs to be claimed for tax purposes in the first two years. At a marginal tax rate of 42%, this results in tax savings of approximately €32,550 on a €100,000 investment—in just two years. Specific calculations can be found in the article on special depreciation for PV 2026. Anyone wishing to use this model as a direct investment without owning a roof can find details in the Pillar Photovoltaic Investment 2026.
Commercial businesses with their own electricity consumption
The logic here shifts away from the feed-in tariff and toward a reduction in the price of purchased electricity. The size of the system scales with the business’s self-consumption. According to the BDEW’s January 2026 electricity price analysis, industrial electricity prices ranged from 17.6–18.3 ct/kWh net (small businesses) to ~14.5 ct/kWh net (large consumers)—commercial end customers often pay 25–35 ct/kWh, including grid fees and concession charges. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for an in-house PV system is 4–10 ct/kWh. The difference of 15–25 ct/kWh per kWh consumed on-site is the key driver of return on investment. For more information, see the Guide to Commercial and Industrial Photovoltaics.
Freelancers and Self-Employed Individuals
For doctors, lawyers, tax advisors, and other self-employed professionals with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher, solar power in 2026 is primarily a tax-saving tool. With a €200,000 investment, the combination of the IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation results in tax savings of approximately €60,900 within two years—equivalent to 30.5% of the investment amount. Those who implement this structure as a direct investment without owning their own roof combine this tax benefit with a current return of 6–10%. For details and sample calculations, see the article “Photovoltaics for Freelancers.”
7. Is a solar power system worth it for homeowners and single-family homes?
The three profiles discussed so far are direct investor scenarios. However, many readers are asking specifically as consumers: Is it worth installing a solar power system on their own single-family home? The answer is different from that for commercial properties—but the logic behind self-consumption remains the same.
How much does a kWp solar power system cost for homeowners?
In 2026, the purchase cost will be around 1,000–2,000 euros per kWp; for small residential rooftop systems, a price of less than about 1,600 euros per kWp is considered a good deal. A typical 10-kWp PV system with energy storage costs 14,000–20,000 euros. In Germany, a zero tax rate (0% value-added tax, Section 12(3) of the Value-Added Tax Act) applies to the purchase of residential PV systems up to 30 kWp—a benefit that lowers the effective purchase cost. Modern PV modules have a lifespan of 25–30 years, meaning the system continues to save money long after it has paid for itself. In addition, a home with its own electricity generation often has a higher resale value.
Solar Power System with or without Storage—and the “Return on Investment Myth”
Self-consumption is the portion of the solar power generated that is used directly in the household instead of being fed into the grid. It determines the system’s cost-effectiveness: Every kilowatt-hour used by the household saves the full residential electricity rate of about 35 cents, while feeding power into the grid yields only 7.70 cents. That is precisely why self-consumption and the degree of self-sufficiency—not the cost of the system—are the most important factors in return on investment for homeowners.
The term “the PV return-on-investment myth” is circulating in some forums—and applies to only one scenario: a PV system without storage and with low self-consumption. Without electricity storage, the self-sufficiency rate is around 30–40%, because a large portion of the solar energy flows unused into the grid during the day and yields only the low feed-in tariff. A battery storage system increases self-consumption to 50–80% and makes the system significantly more cost-effective. The higher the annual electricity consumption, the greater the savings potential—and those who also power an electric car or a heat pump with their own solar power shift even more of their consumption to affordable solar electricity. In addition to the savings, every home system contributes to climate protection and a decentralized energy supply, and reduces dependence on rising prices from energy providers.
Logic Energy’s focus remains on direct commercial investments starting at 100,000 euros—the residential investment is included here for context. Homeowners considering an investment should ask themselves the same key questions as a business: How much of my electricity do I consume myself, and how much will the system reduce my electricity costs? Regardless of the type of system, however, there will be a narrow window of opportunity in 2026—the next section explains why putting it off could end up being costly.
8. The 2026 Window: Why Procrastination Can Be Costly
Three cut-off dates in 2026 and 2027 make the 2026 investment year a structural exception:
- December 31, 2026 – Expiration of the EU state aid approval. The European Commission has approved Germany’s EEG feed-in tariff system as state aid—this approval expires on December 31, 2026. An extension is unlikely at the EU level because the EU electricity market reform (Regulation 2024/1747) explicitly designates CfDs as the standard instrument.
- July 17, 2027 – planned CfD requirement. According to the government’s draft (Cabinet decision of July 29, 2026), the fixed EEG feed-in tariff for new installations of 100 kW or more will be replaced by CfD contracts. Plants that go into operation before this effective date will receive the old feed-in tariff for the full 20-year term (details in the article on the 2027 CfD requirement).
- December 31, 2027 – Expiration of the 15% declining-balance depreciation. The declining-balance depreciation for PV systems introduced in the 2025 Immediate Investment Program is set to expire at the end of 2027. Anyone who wants to take full advantage of the tax incentives offered by IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation must invest before then.
Anyone planning to invest by mid-2027 should realistically assess the lead times. Commercial solar projects of 100 kWp or more typically take 6–18 months from planning to grid connection and commissioning. Those who do not start in 2026 risk missing the deadlines. In addition, rising industrial electricity prices and volatile market values are making on-site power generation more economically attractive—those who plan early secure better terms.
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A no-obligation initial consultation with a specialized financial advisor from our partner network. The contractual partner for direct investments is mediplan Helm e.K., with personal liability of the owners (Sections 1, 17, 19 of the German Commercial Code (HGB)).
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9. Risk Disclosures and Honest Limits
Market risks associated with volatile revenue structures
Direct-marketing prices are volatile. In 2025, the market price for solar power ranged from 1.997 ct/kWh (May low) to 11.02 ct/kWh (January 2026 high). Those who market their systems via CfD or PPA accept this price volatility but also benefit during periods of high prices. A continuously updated overview of direct marketing of PV electricity with current market values illustrates the revenue mechanism in detail.
Technical Risks: Photovoltaic Storage and Monitoring
Technical failures are a real factor. The Fraunhofer ISE study on system monitoring shows that 15–25% of systems have undetected failures resulting in a 5–15% loss of yield. By 2026, monitoring will no longer be an option but the standard. For professionally managed systems, this risk drops to less than 5%. In the case of energy storage systems, cell degradation is an additional factor, resulting in a capacity loss of between 1% and 3% per year, depending on the chemistry (LFP / NMC).
Regulatory Risks: Mandatory Smart Meters and Federal Fiscal Court Proceedings
Regulatory changes beyond the deadlines described above are possible: for example, the Federal Fiscal Court (BFH) case III R 39/25 regarding the IAB for self-consumption (pending as of April 2026, no hearing date set) or adjustments to the smart meter and direct marketing rules. The smart meter requirement for systems of 7 kWp or more has been in effect since 2025 (Section 14a of the Energy Industry Act (EnWG))—anyone planning for 2026 must factor in smart metering systems from the outset. Anyone who is unsure should consult a tax advisor or specialized energy consultant early on, because electricity costs over the next 20 years will be determined more by grid fees, CO₂ pricing, and the market value of solar power than by the cost of the system itself.
The contractual partner for direct photovoltaic investments with Logic Energy is mediplan Helm e.K. (a registered sole proprietorship with personal liability under Sections 1, 17, and 19 of the German Commercial Code (HGB)). This structure is a deliberate departure from models based on limited liability companies (GmbH). Logic Energy is a brand of Logic Glas GmbH.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Will solar power still be worth it in 2026, despite the Solar Peak Act?
Yes—for systems with self-consumption or battery storage, the situation remains virtually unchanged. Under the Solar Peak Act, which provides for zero compensation when prices are negative, this will apply to approximately 573 hours per year in 2025 (~6.5% of the hours). Systems with a self-consumption rate of 60–70% and storage avoid this effect. Systems that feed all their electricity into the grid without storage are more severely affected.
When is a solar power system really worth it—and for whom is it most suitable?
A solar power system will be most cost-effective in 2026 if three conditions are met: sufficient system size (30–100 kWp or more to qualify for tax incentives), a self-consumption rate of at least 50% or a direct sales model, and a tax profile with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher. For investors, commercial businesses, and self-employed individuals, the economic viability is particularly high.
"Solar power isn't worth it"—when is that really true?
In three cases: for heavily shaded or north-facing roofs with a south-equivalent yield below 70 percent; for systems that feed all generated electricity into the grid without self-consumption or storage (due to the Solar Peak Act); and for systems under 30 kWp without a sufficient tax profile. In other scenarios, photovoltaics remain economically attractive.
When will a solar power system pay for itself in 2026?
Commercial rooftop systems with high self-consumption (70–90%) achieve a payback period of 5–9 years—the fastest of all segments. Direct investments of 100 kWp or more pay for themselves in 8–14 years, depending on the marketing model (EEG fixed feed-in tariff vs. PPA). For systems that feed all generated electricity into the grid without any self-consumption, a payback period of 12–15 years is realistic.
What does the CfD requirement starting in 2027 mean for my planned project?
According to the government’s draft bill, the CfD requirement is scheduled to take effect on July 17, 2027, for new installations of 100 kW or more; the Cabinet approved the bill on July 29, 2026, and the Bundestag will begin deliberations in September 2026. Installations that go into operation before this effective date will continue to be eligible for the fixed EEG feed-in tariff for 20 years. According to the government’s draft, systems under 25 kWp remain exempt from the requirement—though this has not yet been enacted into law.
What will the return on direct investments in solar power be in 2026?
According to portfolio data from the Helm Group, direct commercial investments of 100 kWp or more yield a return of 6–10% per year before tax. With combined tax leverage (IAB, 40% special depreciation, 15% declining-balance depreciation), the effective return can rise to 10–12% per annum. Return figures are based on historical data and are not a guarantee of future results.
What is a realistic forecast for photovoltaic output?
A south-facing system in southern Germany generates approximately 1,000–1,100 kWh per kWp per year (Fraunhofer ISE). In northern Germany, the figures range from 850 to 950 kWh/kWp. A 10-kWp system thus produces 8,500–11,000 kWh annually. Tier 1 modules degrade at a rate of 0.3–0.4% per year, while Tier 2 modules degrade at a rate of 0.5–0.8%.
Can I compare solar power to inflation?
Inflation stood at 2.8% in July 2026 (Destatis). Interest rates on overnight accounts currently range from 1.9% to 2.3% per annum (Biallo, March 2026), while 12-month time deposits yield up to 2.85% per annum (Verivox, March 2026). A direct PV investment with a 6–10% p.a. return—with a tax leverage of 10–12%—is thus significantly above the inflation rate.
Is a solar power system worth it for a single-family home without a storage system?
Yes, but to a limited extent: Without energy storage, the self-sufficiency rate is only 30–40% because a lot of solar power flows unused into the grid during the day. With storage, it rises to up to 80%, and the PV system becomes significantly more cost-effective. For a single-family home with a consumption of 4,000–5,000 kWh, it usually pays for itself in 10–14 years.
Conclusion
Whether photovoltaics will be worthwhile in 2026 isn’t a simple yes-or-no question, but rather a matter of specific circumstances. Of the three headlines—the Solar Peak Act, the mandatory CfD starting in 2027, and rising module prices—two are real; they primarily affect small full-feed-in systems without storage. The third is no longer an issue: The price increase expired in July 2026. For investors with a minimum investment of €100,000, commercial businesses with their own electricity consumption, and self-employed professionals with a high tax profile, solar power remains economically attractive: a 6–10% annual return, with tax benefits pushing it up to 12%, and a 5–9-year payback period with high self-consumption. The key factor is self-consumption, not the feed-in tariff—and the timeframe: Those who commission their systems before July 17, 2027, secure 20 years of fixed EEG remuneration and the tax incentives valid through the end of 2027.
For those ready to take the next step: As a business, you’ll maximize the benefits of self-consumption by installing your own PV system. If you’d like to invest but don’t have your own roof, a direct PV investment offers an alternative; the 2026 EEG Feed-in Tariff Guide explains the regulatory framework.
References
- Fraunhofer ISE – Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany (as of January 15, 2026): System Costs, LCOE, Market Data, Module Market Shares
- Fraunhofer ISE – Research Project “WP-QS in Existing Buildings” (Field Study: 77 Heat Pump Systems, 11/2025): Self-Consumption and Energy Self-Sufficiency in PV+HP Configurations
- Fraunhofer ISE – Study on the Levelized Cost of Electricity for Renewable Energy (07/2024): LCOE for Ground-Mounted and Commercial Rooftop Systems
- BSW Solar – German Solar Industry Association, Price Monitor Q1 2026: Module Prices, Storage Costs, Payback Periods
- Federal Network Agency – EEG Feed-in Tariffs (valid Aug. 1, 2026–Jan. 31, 2027): Feed-in tariff 7.70 ct/kWh (partial feed-in ≤10 kWp), accessed Aug. 4, 2026
- BDEW – Electricity Price Analysis, January 2026: Industrial and Commercial Electricity Prices 14.5–18.3 ct/kWh (net)
- HTW Berlin – Solar Storage Systems Research Group, Solarisator Tool: Self-consumption rates of 30–70%, depending on the storage system
- pv magazine – pvXchange Module Price Index, July 2026: Price increases in the first half of the year have come to an end; TOPCon prices are falling slightly
- BloombergNEF – Battery Price Survey (December 2025): Lithium-ion pack prices at $108/kWh, down 45%
- Solar Peak Act, Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51: Adjustment of EEG Feed-in Tariffs in the Event of Negative Prices (effective February 25, 2025)
- BMWE – Government Draft of the EEG 2027 / Mandatory CfDs (Cabinet Decision of July 29, 2026): Contracts for Difference Effective July 17, 2027
- EU Regulation 2024/1747 – Electricity Market Reform: Legal Framework for CfDs as a Standard Instrument
- § 7g of the Income Tax Act (EStG) – Investment Tax Credit and Special Depreciation (50% investment tax credit, 40% special depreciation, maximum amount of €200,000)
- Section 7(2) of the Income Tax Act (EStG) – Declining-balance depreciation for solar power systems: 15% per year, valid through December 31, 2027
- § 3 No. 72 of the Income Tax Act (EStG) – Tax Exemption for Small-Scale Systems Up to 30 kWp per Building Unit, 100 kWp in Total
- Growth Opportunities Act, Federal Law Gazette I 2024 No. 108: Doubling of special depreciation rate from 20% to 40% (effective March 28, 2024)
- Immediate Investment Program, Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 161: 15% declining-balance depreciation for PV (July 1, 2025–December 31, 2027)
- Destatis – Germany's Inflation Rate for July 2026: 2.8% as a benchmark
- Biallo – Overnight Deposit Comparison 03/2026: Standard Interest Rates 1.9–2.3% p.a.
- Verivox – Fixed-Term Deposit Comparison 03/2026: 12-Month Fixed-Term Deposits Up to 2.85% p.a.
- Finanztip – 2025 Solar Power Profitability Analysis: Payback Models for Self-Consumption, Full Feed-in, and Direct Sales
- Helm Group / mediplan Helm e.K. – Portfolio Data 2024: Historical returns of 6–10% per annum from managed direct PV investments
Edited by Logic Energy. Last updated: August 2026.
