Will solar power still be worth it in 2026—despite the CfD requirement, the phase-out of the EEG, and rising module prices?
Excerpt
Three risks are causing uncertainty in the PV market in 2026: mandatory CfDs starting July 17, 2027, the phase-out of EEG subsidies on December 31, 2026, and rising module prices since April. For investors, commercial enterprises, and self-employed professionals, photovoltaics remains attractive nonetheless—6–10% annual return, with tax benefits of up to 12%. Why 2026 is a particularly good year to invest, and which three scenarios are truly no longer worthwhile.
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Photovoltaics will remain a worthwhile investment in 2026—especially for investors, businesses, and self-employed professionals. Three regulatory changes are unsettling the market: the planned CfD requirement starting July 17, 2027, the expiration of the EEG subsidy approval on December 31, 2026, and module price increases of 10–15% since April 1, 2026. Nevertheless, data from Fraunhofer ISE, BNetzA market values, and portfolio data from the Helm Group show that direct commercial investments starting at €100,000 continue to yield returns of 6–10% per annum, while commercial rooftop systems with high self-consumption pay for themselves in 5–9 years. Those who invest in 2026 will take advantage of the last window of opportunity with fixed EEG feed-in tariffs and maximum tax benefits.
Table of Contents
Why, especially in 2026, many people doubt whether solar power is still worth it
Is a solar power system still worth it? — The numbers speak for themselves
Solar power isn't worth it — when this statement is actually true
Risk Disclosures and Realistic Limits (Market Risks · Photovoltaic Storage · Smart Meters)
Why, especially in 2026, many people doubt whether solar power is still worth it
Three headlines shaped the skepticism surrounding photovoltaics in 2026: the Solar Peak Act with zero compensation for negative electricity prices, the planned abolition of the fixed EEG feed-in tariff through mandatory CfDs starting in July 2027, and module price increases since the expiration of Chinese export rebates on April 1, 2026. Anyone reading only the headlines might conclude: “Photovoltaics are no longer worth it.” The data paints a different picture.
The question of whether a solar power system will still be worth it in 2026 is coming up more often than in any previous year. There is a reason for this: In 2025 and early 2026, three developments have converged that give the public the impression that the solar power system business model is currently being dismantled.
The Solar Peak Act of February 25, 2025 (Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51) established for the first time that systems with a capacity of 2 kWp or more would no longer receive EEG remuneration during periods of negative day-ahead electricity prices. In 2025, there were 573 hours of negative prices in Germany—a figure that stood at around 450 hours in 2024. Anyone operating a system with full feed-in actually loses revenue during these hours.
At the same time, it is becoming clear at the European level that the EU state aid approval for the German EEG system will expire on December 31, 2026. The BMWE’s working draft for the successor EEG (as of February 2026) stipulates that for new installations with a capacity of 100 kW or more, so-called Contracts for Difference (CfDs) will become mandatory instead of fixed feed-in tariffs—planned to take effect on July 17, 2027. We examine the regulatory details in depth in our background article on the 2027 CfD requirement.
The third headline concerned the modules themselves. As of April 1, 2026, Chinese export rebates for solar modules were eliminated, which, according to pv magazine, led to a 10–15% increase in module prices. This was the first significant price increase in a multi-year period of falling system costs.
These three changes are real. However, they do not make photovoltaics uneconomical—they simply change which types of systems make sense for which investor groups and when investments should be made.
An honest assessment of the three risk factors
The Solar Peak Act affects almost exclusively small full-feed-in systems without storage. The CfD requirement starting in 2027 applies only to new systems of 100 kW or more—and can be circumvented by commissioning the system before the deadline. A 10–15% increase in module prices translates to approximately €2,000–4,000 in additional costs for a 30-kWp commercial system—an amount that is more than offset by the combined tax incentives (IAB + special depreciation + declining balance depreciation).
A nuanced assessment of the three risk factors reveals who is realistically most affected.
| Risk factor | Particularly effective | Effect | antidote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar Peak Act (negative prices) | Full-input systems without storage | average 573 hours without pay in 2025 | Increase self-consumption, battery storage, direct sales |
| CfD requirement effective July 17, 2027 | New installations ≥ 100 kW after the effective date | High (for large-scale projects) revenue risk in the event of low market prices | Commissioning before July 17, 2027 guarantees a fixed EEG feed-in tariff for 20 years |
| 10–15% increase in module prices | All new installations effective April 1, 2026 | Small 30-kWp system: ~€2,000–4,000 in additional costs | Tax incentives (IAB + special depreciation) more than offset the costs |
| Sources: Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51 (Solar Peak Act) · BMWE Working Draft on the Successor to the EEG, Feb. 2026 · pv magazine, January 2026 · Fraunhofer ISE, “Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany,” as of Jan. 15, 2026. | |||
The Solar Peak Act does not apply to every system
The 573 hours of negative prices in 2025 account for approximately 6.5% of the total hours in a year. For a system with a 70% self-consumption rate and battery storage, the impact is minimal—during these hours, the electricity is either temporarily stored in the battery or consumed on-site. For systems that feed all generated electricity into the grid without storage, however, the effect can account for 5–8% of annual revenue. Commercial direct investments and larger PV systems starting at 100 kWp are structurally different due to direct marketing and self-consumption structures—they avoid the Spitzengesetz effect. A detailed analysis of the impact of negative electricity prices on PV investors can be found in the specific guide on this topic.
Those planning new projects in 2026 will therefore approach sizing differently: self-consumption and storage will become the standard strategy. In its Solarisator tool, HTW Berlin has shown that a 10-kWp system with a 10-kWh storage unit achieves self-consumption rates of 60–70%—without storage, the rate is only 30–40%.
The planned deferral of payments starting in 2027
Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are new in Germany but have been established in other EU countries (the United Kingdom, France, Italy) for years. They guarantee a minimum price per kWh but deduct revenues above that price. This reduces returns, particularly during periods of high prices. We have dedicated a separate background article to the topic of the 2027 CfD mandate, which examines the BMWE’s working draft and the EU electricity market reform in detail.
Important: Anyone who commissions a system before July 17, 2027, will be subject to the old remuneration structure, which provides a fixed feed-in tariff for 20 years. According to the working draft, systems ≤ 25 kWp may remain exempt from the CfD requirement even after 2027—though as of April 2026, this has not yet been decided and depends on the final legislative process. You can find an overview of the current 2026 feed-in rates by system type and the expected degressions in the Feed-in Tariff Guide.
The increase in module prices is more than offset by tax incentives
A 10–15% increase in solar module prices may sound like a lot, but it only affects the cost of the modules—and according to Fraunhofer ISE, that now accounts for just 20–22% of the total cost. For a 30-kWp commercial system costing around €27,000 net, this means actual additional acquisition costs of about €800–1,200, not €4,000–5,000. Converted to electricity generation costs, this corresponds to a surcharge of less than 0.5 cents per kWh over the system’s lifetime.
In contrast, there are the combined tax incentives: the investment deduction, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation can make up to 77.5% of the acquisition costs tax-deductible in the first two years. A detailed calculation can be found in our article on special depreciation PV 2026 + IAB.
Is a solar power system still worth it? — The numbers speak for themselves
In 2026, returns on photovoltaic investments will depend heavily on the type of system and the investor’s profile. According to portfolio data from the Helm Group, direct investments in commercial systems of 100 kWp or more yield returns of 6–10% per year. With combined tax incentives (IAB + special depreciation + declining balance depreciation), the effective return for investors with a high tax profile climbs to 10–12% per annum. Commercial rooftop systems with 70–90% self-consumption pay for themselves in 5–9 years—the fastest payback period of all system segments. The claim that “photovoltaics aren’t worth it” is true only for three specific scenarios, which are listed at the end of this section.
Asking in general terms whether solar power is worth it is too vague. The answer depends on three factors: the type of system, the proportion of self-consumption, and the investor’s tax profile.
| System type | Return on Investment/Payback Period | Requirement | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial direct investment starting at 100 kWp | 6–10% annual return (10–12% after tax) | Minimum investment: €100,000 | Helm Group Portfolio Data 2024 |
| Commercial roof system, 30–100 kWp, self-consumption | 5–9-year payback period | 70–90% self-consumption | Fraunhofer ISE / BSW Solar Q1 2026 |
| Industrial roof 100–500 kWp | 5–8-year payback period, 6–10% IRR | Load profile with high daily consumption | Fraunhofer ISE / BSW Solar Q1 2026 |
| Ground-Mounted Solar Plant Direct Sales | 10–14 years payback period | PPA or EEG tender | BSW Solar / Finanztip 2025 |
| Investment for freelancers starting at €100,000 | Up to €60,900 in tax savings on a €200,000 investment (2 years) | Marginal tax rate of 42%+, IAB authorization | § 7g of the Income Tax Act / Invoice from Logic Energy |
| Sources: Fraunhofer ISE “Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany” Jan. 15, 2026 · BSW Solar Price Monitor Q1 2026 · BNetzA EEG Feed-in Tariffs Feb. 1–July 31, 2026 · Finanztip Profitability Calculation 2025 · Helm Group Portfolio Data 2024. | |||
The range of responses shows that the question “Is a solar power system worth it?” has not one, but five answers. An investor who puts €100,000 plus their own capital into a direct investment in 2026 will have a different calculation than a business with its own facility or a freelancer with a high tax profile.
According to Fraunhofer ISE, the projected solar power yield per kWp (kilowatt peak) of module capacity is approximately 1,000–1,100 kWh per year in southern Germany and 850–950 kWh in northern Germany. A 100-kWp commercial system thus generates 85,000–110,000 kWh of solar power annually. Mathematically, this corresponds to the electricity consumption of about 25–30 four-person households at a typical 4,000 kWh—but for commercial use, this electricity generation usually covers 60–90% of the internal operational needs of a logistics warehouse, a production facility, or a cold storage facility. With 75% self-consumption and a commercial electricity price of 28 ct/kWh, this results in self-consumption savings of approximately €17,850–23,100 annually, supplemented by EEG feed-in tariffs or PPA revenues for the portion fed into the grid.
The question of when photovoltaics become a worthwhile investment can be answered specifically for the Logic Energy target group: A direct investment of €100,000 or more in equity yields a 6–10% return per year before tax effects—with IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation, the effective return for investors with a marginal tax rate of 42%+ rises to 10–12% per year. The return per euro invested is thus significantly higher than that of traditional investment alternatives such as money market accounts (1.9–2.3% per year with inflation at 2.2%) or German government bonds (~3%).
Solar power isn't worth it — when this statement is actually true
The statement “Photovoltaics aren’t worth it” is actually true in three specific cases: for heavily shaded or north-facing roofs with a south-equivalent yield of less than 70%, for systems designed solely for full grid feed-in without any self-consumption option since the enactment of the Solar Peak Act, and for investments under 100 kWp without a tax profile sufficient to take advantage of the investment allowance (IAB) and special depreciation.
The statement “Photovoltaics aren’t worth it anymore” is often used as a blanket statement—and, taken at face value, it isn’t true. However, there are three specific situations in which it does apply.
Scenario 1: Poor site quality. A PV system on a north-facing sloped roof or one with significant shading from trees or neighboring buildings can yield less than 70% of the expected south-facing output. A purely east-west orientation still performs acceptably at 80–90% of the south-facing output—the problem lies in a combination of factors including low solar radiation, shading, and an unfavorable roof pitch. This reduces the yield from 1,000 kWh/kWp to 600–700 kWh/kWp. With these yields, the payback period extends to 18–22 years—the system is not financially profitable, but it can still be worthwhile as a CO₂ reduction measure.
Second scenario: Full grid feed-in without storage under the Solar Peak Act. Anyone planning a pure full-feed-in system in 2026 without the option for self-consumption and without battery storage accepts a loss of revenue during 573 hours of negative prices (as of 2025). The trend is rising—Fraunhofer ISE expects the number of hours with negative prices to continue increasing through 2030.
Third scenario: Systems under 30 kWp without a sufficient tax profile. Systems under 30 kWp per building unit qualify for the tax exemption under Section 3(72) of the German Income Tax Act (EStG). While this is advantageous for many private individuals, it systematically precludes the use of the investment deduction and special depreciation. Those with a high tax profile and a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher thus lose the greatest leverage for returns. For this target group, commercial systems or direct investments starting at 100 kWp are significantly more worthwhile than small private rooftop systems—details on this can be found in the article on photovoltaics as an investment.
In all other scenarios—where the roof is well-oriented, with self-consumption, or for systems of 100 kWp or more with a commercial tax structure—photovoltaics will remain economically attractive in 2026.
When will a solar power system actually pay for itself in 2026?
In 2026, the payback period will depend more on the self-consumption rate than on module prices. Commercial systems with high self-consumption (70–90%) will have a payback period of 5–9 years—the shortest in all system segments. Direct investments of 100 kWp or more pay for themselves in 8–14 years, depending on the marketing model (EEG fixed feed-in tariff vs. PPA direct marketing). For pure full-feed-in setups with no self-consumption, 12–15 years is realistic.
Self-consumption rate trumps system cost: Why a PV system with storage will be the best investment in 2026
Self-consumption refers to the portion of self-generated solar power that is used directly on-site, in the company’s own facility or production area, rather than being fed into the public grid. The higher the self-consumption rate, the more economical the PV system—because self-generated electricity (production costs of 4–10 ct/kWh) is significantly cheaper than electricity purchased from the grid (commercial end customers: 25–35 ct/kWh, including grid fees and concession charges). With battery storage, the self-consumption rate in commercial systems can be increased to 70–90%, which boosts the ongoing return on investment and reduces dependence on electricity price fluctuations. For direct investments without an on-site consumption point, direct marketing (PPA, market-value solar, or, in the future, CfD) serves as the revenue source instead.
The key factor in determining the payback period is not the cost of the system, but the self-consumption rate. This is due to the difference between the electricity purchase price and the EEG feed-in tariff.
One kWh of self-consumed electricity saves 35–38 cents (residential) or 25–35 cents (commercial), while one kWh fed into the grid currently yields only 7.78 cents per kWh in EEG feed-in tariffs. The difference is therefore 27–30 cents per kilowatt-hour. Anyone who increases their self-consumption from 30% to 70% shifts 40% of their annual production from the low feed-in tariff to high savings—and thus often shortens the payback period by 3–5 years. Those looking for a specific calculation for their own situation can find online calculators at Finanztip or BSW Solar; individual applicability always depends on electricity demand, system size, and load profile.
How a standard 10-kWp system and a 100-kWp commercial system will perform in 2026 — A reality check for solar power systems
The 10–15% increase in module prices since April 2026 typically extends the payback period by only 6–12 months, because modules account for only 20–22% of total costs. For a 10-kWp system with storage costing €18,000, this translates to an increase of approximately €600–900. For a typical 100-kWp commercial system costing €90,000–110,000 (net, Fraunhofer ISE / BSW Solar Q1 2026), the surcharge is around €1,800–3,300—which, given an investment of this size and a 6–10% annual — and can be more than offset in the first year of operation through tax incentives.
Sector coupling: Heat pumps and electric mobility as a boost to returns
One factor that should not be underestimated in 2026 is sector coupling—the integration of a PV system with a heat pump, process heat, or electric vehicle charging infrastructure. In 2026, this will be the most important factor in shortening the payback period, as it covers a larger portion of the household’s electricity needs. The Fraunhofer ISE study “WP-QS in Existing Buildings” (published 11/2025, a 4-year field study of 77 heat pump systems) shows: With PV + heat pump + storage, self-consumption rates rise to up to 83% and self-sufficiency levels to up to 62%. For commercial enterprises with vehicle fleets, e-mobility serves as a similar lever: Those who prefer to charge their own fleet or employee electric vehicles using their own solar power shift another portion of their electricity demand from grid procurement at 28–35 ct/kWh to self-charging at around 5–12 ct/kWh—an economic benefit that is often underestimated.
Photovoltaic Returns in 2026: Three Investor Profiles, Three Answers
High-net-worth private investors with €100,000 or more in equity can maximize tax benefits through direct investments and achieve returns of 6–10% per year—effectively 10–12% with IAB and special depreciation. Commercial businesses with their own electricity consumption achieve the fastest payback period of all segments (5–9 years) through savings on self-consumption. Freelancers with a marginal tax rate of 42%+ save approximately €60,900 in taxes over two years on a €200,000 investment—see the FREI-D article for details.
The broad question "Is solar power worth it?" can be broken down into three investor profiles with different return strategies—all three involve direct investment, not traditional home solar systems.
Investors with at least €100,000 in equity: When is solar power a worthwhile direct investment?
Here, the solar power system becomes a tax-efficient investment. The combination of the investment deduction (50% upfront), special depreciation (40% over 5 years), and declining-balance depreciation (15% per year, limited until December 31, 2027) allows up to 77.5% of the acquisition costs to be claimed for tax purposes in the first two years. At a marginal tax rate of 42%, a €100,000 investment results in approximately €32,550 in tax savings—over two years. Specific calculations can be found in the article on Special Depreciation for PV 2026. Those who wish to use this model as a direct investment without owning a roof can find details in the Pillar Photovoltaic Investment 2026.
Businesses: When is a solar power system a good investment for self-consumption?
The logic here shifts away from feed-in tariffs and toward reducing the cost of purchased electricity. The size of the system scales with the business’s self-consumption—those who consume more electricity can use more of it themselves instead of feeding it into the grid. According to the BDEW electricity price analysis for January 2026, industrial electricity prices ranged from 17.6–18.3 ct/kWh net (small businesses) to ~14.5 ct/kWh net (large consumers)—but commercial end customers often pay 25–35 ct/kWh, including grid fees and concession charges. By comparison, the levelized cost of electricity from an in-house PV system is 4–10 ct/kWh. The difference of 15–25 ct/kWh per kWh consumed on-site is the key driver of return on investment. Read more in the article “Photovoltaics Industry 2026.”
Freelancers and the Self-Employed: Is a Solar System Worth It for Those with a High Tax Burden?
For doctors, lawyers, tax advisors, and other self-employed professionals with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher, solar power in 2026 is primarily a tax-saving tool. With a €200,000 investment, the combination of IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation results in approximately €60,900 in tax savings within two years—equivalent to 30.5% of the investment amount. Those who implement this structure as a direct investment without owning a roof combine the tax leverage with a 6–10% current return. Details and calculation examples for this target group can be found in the article “Photovoltaics for Freelancers.”
The 2026 Window: Why Delaying Can Be Costly
2026 is a remarkable year for investment for three reasons: the fixed EEG feed-in tariff for 20 years will only apply to projects commissioned before July 17, 2027; the 15% declining balance depreciation rate expires on December 31, 2027; and, after years of decline, module prices are on an upward trend for the first time. Those who invest in 2026 will secure both the old EEG framework and maximum tax benefits.
Three cut-off dates in 2026 and 2027 make 2026 a special case in terms of investment.
Key Date 1: December 31, 2026 — Expiration of the EU state aid approval. The European Commission has approved Germany’s EEG feed-in tariff system as state aid — this approval expires on December 31, 2026. An extension of the existing system is unlikely at the EU level because the EU electricity market reform (Regulation 2024/1747) explicitly relies on CfDs as the standard European instrument.
Cutoff Date 2: July 17, 2027 — planned CfD requirement. According to the BMWE working draft (as of January 22, 2026), the fixed EEG feed-in tariff for new installations of 100 kW or more will be replaced by CfD contracts. Plants that go into operation before this deadline and are connected to the market via the grid will receive the old feed-in tariff for the full 20-year term. This has a direct impact on all direct investors with plants of 100 kW or more — we cover the legal details and transitional provisions in a separate article on the 2027 CfD requirement.
Deadline 3: December 31, 2027 — Expiration of the 15% declining balance depreciation. The declining balance depreciation for PV systems introduced in the 2025 Immediate Investment Program is set to expire at the end of 2027. Anyone wishing to take full advantage of the tax incentives offered by IAB + special depreciation + declining balance depreciation must invest before this deadline — see the tax article for details.
Anyone planning to invest by mid-2027 should realistically assess the lead times involved. Commercial solar projects of 100 kWp or more typically take 6–18 months from planning through installation to grid connection and commissioning. Anyone who hasn’t started by 2026 risks missing the deadlines.
Added to this is the medium-term trend in electricity prices: rising industrial electricity prices and volatile market values are making on-site power generation more economically attractive—at the same time, under pressure from rising module prices, negotiations with plant manufacturers will be more difficult in 2026 than in 2025. Those who plan early secure better terms.
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Photovoltaics remain a tangible asset with a long-term commitment and real market risks—low direct-sales prices during the height of summer, technical failures, and regulatory changes. The Helm Group has been operating PV systems for over 40 years and, as mediplan Helm e.K. (registered merchant), assumes personal owner liability—a structural distinction from pure GmbH models with limited liability.
Anyone who honestly answers the question of whether PV will be worthwhile by 2026 must also acknowledge the risks.
Market risks associated with volatile revenue structures
Direct-marketing prices are volatile. In 2025, the market price for solar power ranged from 1.997 ct/kWh (May low) to 11.02 ct/kWh (January 2026 high). Those who market a system via CfD or PPA accept this price volatility but also benefit during periods of high prices. A continuously updated overview of direct marketing of PV electricity with current market values shows the revenue mechanism and monthly price trends in detail.
Technical Risks: Photovoltaic Storage and Monitoring
Technical failures are a real concern. The Fraunhofer ISE study on system monitoring shows that 15–25% of systems have undetected failures resulting in a 5–15% loss of output. By 2026, monitoring will no longer be an option but the standard. For professionally managed systems—whether pure PV systems or PV-storage combinations—this risk drops to below 5%. With energy storage systems, cell degradation is an additional factor, resulting in a capacity loss of between 1% and 3% per year, depending on the chemistry (LFP/NMC).
Regulatory Risks: Mandatory Smart Meters and Federal Fiscal Court Proceedings
Regulatory changes beyond the deadlines described here are possible. Examples include the Federal Fiscal Court (BFH) case III R 39/25 regarding the IAB for self-consumption (pending as of April 2026, no hearing date set) or potential adjustments to the smart meter requirement and direct marketing rules. The smart meter requirement for systems of 7 kWp or more has been in effect since 2025 (Section 14a EnWG)—anyone planning for 2026 must factor in smart metering systems from the outset. Anyone who feels uncertain given this complexity should involve experts—tax advisors or specialized energy consultants—in the investment decision early on, because electricity costs over the next 20 years will be determined more by grid fees, CO₂ pricing, and market-value solar than by pure system prices.
The contractual partner for direct photovoltaic investments with Logic Energy is mediplan Helm e.K. (a registered sole proprietorship with personal liability under Sections 1, 17, and 19 of the German Commercial Code (HGB)). This structure is a deliberate departure from models based on limited liability companies (GmbH). Logic Energy is a brand of Logic Glas GmbH.
This article is intended solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Return figures are based on historical data and are not a guarantee of future results. Tax-related statements are general in nature—individual applicability should be clarified with a licensed tax advisor. Statements regarding the EEG reform and CfD obligations refer to draft legislation (as of January 22, 2026) and enacted law; final legislation may differ. All information is provided without warranty. As of April 2026.
FAQ
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Yes — for systems with self-consumption or battery storage, the situation remains virtually unchanged. The Solar Peak Act, which provides for zero compensation during periods of negative prices, will apply to approximately 573 hours per year in 2025 (~6.5% of the total hours). Systems with a self-consumption rate of 60–70% and storage can mitigate this effect through self-consumption or storage. Systems that feed all generated power into the grid without storage are more severely affected—in this case, the system design is crucial.
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A solar power system will be most cost-effective in 2026 if three conditions are met: sufficient system size (30–100 kWp or more to take advantage of tax incentives), a self-consumption rate of at least 50% or a direct sales model, and a suitable tax profile with a marginal tax rate of 42% or higher. For investors, commercial enterprises, and freelancers, the economic viability is particularly high because IAB, special depreciation, and declining-balance depreciation can be fully utilized. When a PV system specifically pays off therefore depends primarily on the individual load profile and tax profile—general answers fall short.
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In three cases: for heavily shaded or north-facing roofs with a south-equivalent yield below 70%, for systems that feed all generated power into the grid without self-consumption or storage (due to the Solar Peak Act), and for systems under 30 kWp without a tax profile sufficient to qualify for the IAB and special depreciation. In other scenarios—good roof orientation, self-consumption, and systems of 100 kWp or more with a commercial structure—photovoltaics remain economically viable.
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Commercial rooftop systems with high self-consumption (70–90%) pay for themselves in 5–9 years—the fastest payback period of any segment (BSW Solar / Finanztip 2025). Industrial rooftop systems ranging from 100 to 500 kWp have similar payback periods. Direct investments of 100 kWp or more pay for themselves in 8–14 years, depending on the marketing model (EEG fixed feed-in tariff vs. PPA). Ground-mounted systems with direct marketing take 10–14 years. For pure full-feed-in setups without self-consumption or storage, 12–15 years is realistic.
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According to the BMWE draft bill (as of January 22, 2026), the CfD requirement is set to apply to new installations with a capacity of 100 kW or more starting July 17, 2027. Installations that go into operation before this deadline will continue to be eligible for the fixed EEG feed-in tariff for 20 years. According to the draft, systems under 25 kWp remain exempt from the requirement—however, as of April 2026, this has not yet been enacted into law. Individual applicability must be verified by a tax advisor.
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According to portfolio data from the Helm Group, direct commercial investments in systems of 100 kWp or larger yield a return of 6–10% per year before tax. With combined tax benefits (investment deduction, 40% special depreciation, 15% declining balance depreciation), the effective return can rise to 10–12% per annum. Return figures are based on historical data and are not a guarantee of future results.
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A south-facing system in southern Germany generates approximately 1,000–1,100 kWh per kWp per year (Fraunhofer ISE). In northern Germany, the figures are 850–950 kWh/kWp. A 10-kWp system thus produces 8,500–11,000 kWh annually. Tier 1 modules degrade at a rate of 0.3–0.4% per year (IEC 61215), while Tier 2 modules degrade at a rate of 0.5–0.8%—this is significant over long operating periods.
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Inflation stood at 2.2% in January 2026 (Destatis). Interest rates on overnight money currently range from 1.9% to 2.3% per annum (Biallo, March 2026), while 12-month time deposits offer up to 2.85% per annum (Verivox, March 2026). A direct PV investment with a 6–10% p.a. return—with a tax leverage of 10–12%—is thus well above inflation. A detailed comparison of asset classes can be found in the article on photovoltaics as an investment.
References
Fraunhofer ISE — “Current Facts on Photovoltaics in Germany” (as of January 15, 2026): System costs, LCOE, market data, and module market shares.
Fraunhofer ISE — Research project “WP-QS in Existing Buildings” (4-year field study of 77 heat pump systems, November 2025): Self-consumption rates and self-sufficiency levels in PV+HP systems.
Fraunhofer ISE — Study on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for Renewable Energy (July 2024 + Cost Study January 2026): LCOE values for ground-mounted and commercial rooftop systems.
BSW Solar — German Solar Industry Association, Price Monitor Q1 2026: Market data on module prices, storage costs, and payback periods.
Federal Network Agency — EEG Feed-in Tariffs for February 1–July 31, 2026: Current feed-in tariff of 7.78 ct/kWh and maximum rates from tenders.
BDEW — Electricity Price Analysis January 2026: Industrial and commercial electricity prices 14.5–18.3 ct/kWh net.
HTW Berlin — Solar Storage Systems Research Group, Solarisator Tool, and the study “Optimal Sizing of PV Systems for Prosumers”: Self-consumption rates of 30–70% depending on the storage system.
pv magazine — Module price increase in January 2026: Impact of the elimination of China’s export rebates on module prices (10–15% premium).
BloombergNEF — Battery Price Survey (December 2025): Global lithium-ion pack prices at $108/kWh, a 45% decline.
Solar Peak Act, Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 51 — Act on the Adjustment of EEG Remuneration in the Event of Negative Electricity Prices (effective as of February 25, 2025).
BMWE — Draft Bill on the Successor to the EEG / CfD Requirement (as of January 22, 2026): planned transition to contracts for difference starting July 17, 2027.
EU Regulation 2024/1747 — Electricity Market Reform via EUR-Lex: European legal framework for CfDs as a standard instrument.
§ 7g of the Income Tax Act (EStG) — Investment deduction and special depreciation: 50% advance investment deduction, 40% special depreciation, €200,000 maximum amount.
§ 7(2) of the Income Tax Act (EStG) — Declining-balance depreciation for PV systems: 15% per year, valid until December 31, 2027.
§ 3 No. 72 of the Income Tax Act (EStG) — Tax exemption for small-scale installations: up to 30 kWp per building unit, 100 kWp in total per taxpayer.
Growth Opportunities Act, Federal Law Gazette I 2024 No. 108 — Doubling of the special depreciation allowance from 20% to 40% (effective as of March 28, 2024).
Immediate Investment Program, Federal Law Gazette 2025 I No. 161 — Introduction of a 15% declining balance depreciation rate for PV systems (effective July 1, 2025–December 31, 2027).
Destatis — Germany's inflation rate for January 2026: 2.2% as a benchmark for real returns.
Biallo — Money Market Account Comparison 03/2026: Standard interest rates 1.9–2.3% p.a.
Verivox — Fixed-Term Deposit Comparison 03/2026: 12-month fixed-term deposits with up to 2.85% p.a.
Finanztip — 2025 Solar Power Cost-Benefit Analysis: Payback Models for Self-Consumption, Full Feed-in, and Direct Sales.
Helm Group / mediplan Helm e.K. — Portfolio Data 2024: Historical returns of 6–10% per annum from managed direct PV investments.
