How will photovoltaic prices trend in 2026—and what does that mean for investments?
In early 2026, module prices rose for four consecutive months, but the increase has stopped since July. However, the commonly cited explanation for this does not hold up—and the module price accounts for only one-fifth of the total cost anyway.
The short answer
The trend in photovoltaic prices in 2026 unfolded in two phases: four months of increases through April, followed by stabilization since July. Further increases in prices for TOPCon modules are considered unlikely; the trend is slightly downward. The often-cited elimination of China’s export tax rebate was not the cause. And because modules account for only about one-fifth of the investment, the module price is the wrong factor to focus on when making a decision.
Anyone using photovoltaic price trends to inform an investment decision will encounter a contradictory picture in 2026: module prices rose for the first four months, then leveled off. This article explains what actually happened, which explanations don’t hold up, and what role the module price actually plays in the overall calculation.
Where module prices will stand in the summer of 2026
The price increase seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. In July 2026, prices across all technology classes did not rise across the board for the second time this year. Price movements were negligible for Full-Black and low-cost modules and marginal in the other segments. Availability has improved significantly.
According to pvXchange, further price increases this year are unlikely for TOPCon modules—the workhorse of the commercial and ground-mounted segments. Prices in this segment have stabilized and are showing a slight downward trend.
A deliberate omission at this point: We do not cite “cents per watt” figures. The relevant index from pvXchange is published only as a graph and cannot be cited as a reliable set of figures. The figures circulating on advice websites are copies of unknown accuracy—they do not provide a basis for an investment analysis.
What Really Happened in 2026 — and What Didn't
Between January and April 2026, module prices rose for four consecutive months, increasing by about 5.5 percent from March to April. One explanation circulating is the elimination of China’s export tax rebate effective April 1, 2026. This explanation does not hold up: According to pvXchange, the elimination had been factored into prices for months.
There is a second factor that also argues against this. Polysilicon prices fell in the opposite direction during the same period. If costs had been the driving factor, that would have dampened the increase rather than contributing to it.
The real drivers lay elsewhere: production cuts in China as part of the so-called “anti-recession” policy on the supply side, and a surge in demand resulting from the energy crisis on the demand side. Both factors were at play simultaneously—and have since subsided.
The difference is not merely theoretical. Anyone who bases their decision on the export tax narrative is assuming a cause that did not actually exist and usually draws the wrong conclusion from it: further price increases.
Why Prices Are Falling Again
Production capacity is operating at high utilization rates, and the pressure to increase output continues. In a market that is stagnating or growing only marginally, this leads to overproduction. Overproduction puts downward pressure on prices—that is the mechanism behind the slight downward trend in TOPCon.
This effect is structural in nature. It will not reverse in the short term as long as capacity continues to outpace demand.
A regulatory factor will come into play in 2027: As of January 1, 2027, China will introduce mandatory efficiency and consumption standards across the entire value chain, from polysilicon through cells to modules and inverters. For procurement in Europe, this is a date to mark on the calendar. It is currently impossible to reliably estimate how much capacity will be removed from the market as a result.
Back-Contact: The Exception to the Rule
One segment is bucking the trend. For modules based on back-contact cells with efficiencies exceeding 24 percent, demand continues to outstrip supply; bottlenecks are occurring in the higher power classes. Prices in this segment are expected to remain stable or rise slightly.
This has little impact on the overall index because the market share is small. However, its niche status is unlikely to last long: Nearly all major Asian manufacturers are developing the technology and preparing for product launches in Europe. At Intersolar in Munich in June, virtually every leading manufacturer had a back-contact module ready for mass production on display.
There are two reasons why production has so far remained limited to three manufacturers—AIKO, Longi, and TCL, which is little known in Europe: patent disputes over the manufacturing processes and the reluctance of many companies to reconfigure production lines that have only just been optimized for TOPCon.
In practice, this means that the price gap between modules for small rooftop systems and those for commercial roofs and ground-mounted installations is likely to widen again. Those in the residential sector who need the highest efficiency in a small space will pay significantly more for it in the future.
What's Next After TOPCon
Manufacturers are turning their attention to perovskite. The material is suitable for transparent modules used in building integration and for tandem modules that combine a perovskite layer with crystalline silicon cells. Physically, efficiencies above 30 percent are possible.
However, the path to mass production is longer than trade show presentations might suggest. Manufacturing remains challenging, and the long-term stability of the perovskite layers has not been conclusively demonstrated—under certain climatic conditions, degradation effects occur that are not yet fully understood.
Perovskite is therefore not a compelling reason for making an investment decision in 2026. Waiting for a technology whose longevity is unclear will cost twenty years of revenue.
The module price is not the same as the system price
This is where the most common misconception lies. Modules account for only about one-fifth of the total investment in a turnkey system. Inverters, mounting structures, cables, installation, grid connection, planning, and documentation make up the rest—and these items are not tied to the price of the modules.
The Fraunhofer ISE reports the following price ranges for turnkey systems: rooftop systems up to 30 kilowatt-peak, 1,000 to 2,000 euros per kilowatt-peak; commercial rooftop systems over 30 kilowatt-peak, 900 to 1,600 euros; ground-mounted systems starting at one megawatt-peak: 700 to 900 euros, and agri-photovoltaic systems: between 900 and 1,700 euros.
If you run the numbers, a 10 percent change in module prices shifts the total investment by about 2 percent. Compared to the factors that actually determine the return on investment—location, self-consumption rate, financing terms, and operational management—this is a minor factor. The article on PV investment costs in 2026 breaks down the specific costs of a system.
Storage prices are moving in the opposite direction
While module prices are moving sideways, storage prices continue to decline. For LiFePO4-based home storage systems in the 5- to 10-kilowatt-hour range, the market price in 2026 will be around 440 euros per kilowatt-hour, with further potential for decline.
For commercial applications, Fraunhofer ISE reports price ranges of 450 to 800 euros per kilowatt-hour; for large-scale utility-grade storage systems, the range is 400 to 600 euros. Anyone planning a system today should therefore factor in the storage option rather than putting it off.
What This Means for the Timing of the Investment
Price trends alone do not justify a delay. Module prices have been moving sideways or declining slightly; they account for one-fifth of the investment, and any further decline would be barely noticeable at the overall plant level.
However, there are two deadlines with significant financial implications. The declining-balance depreciation method is limited to December 31, 2027—the article on photovoltaic depreciation explains how it interacts with the investment tax credit and special depreciation.
And facilities that go into operation by the end of 2026 will retain their grandfathering status under the EEG. The government’s draft of the EEG 2027 passed the Cabinet on July 29, 2026; the Bundestag and Bundesrat are still deliberating on it. The article on EEG feed-in tariffs for 2026 provides an overview of the current status of feed-in tariffs.
Those who wait save very little on the module side but risk a lot on the funding side.
Key Figures at a Glance
The figures most commonly used in discussions of pricing—with sources and dates. We have deliberately omitted the "cents per watt" figures because the relevant index is not published as a series of numbers.
| Key figure | Value | Source / Date |
|---|---|---|
| TOPCon Module Price Trend | steady, with a slight decline | pvXchange, July 2026 |
| Increase from January through April 2026 | 4 consecutive months, March→April +5.5% | pvXchange, 2026 |
| Roof-mounted system up to 30 kWp | 1,000–2,000 €/kWp | Fraunhofer ISE |
| Commercial rooftop system over 30 kWp | 900–1,600 €/kWp | Fraunhofer ISE |
| Ground-mounted solar power plant with a capacity of 1 MWp or more | €700–900 per kWp | Fraunhofer ISE |
| Home Battery Storage 5–10 kWh (LiFePO4) | about 440 €/kWh | Market Data 2026 |
| End of declining-balance depreciation | 31.12.2027 | § 7(2) of the Income Tax Act |
| Chinese Efficiency Standards | Effective January 1, 2027 | China, Value Chain |
Price issue resolved — now let's calculate the investment
The price per module matters little; location and design matter much more. We’ll calculate your project using reliable figures—from rooftop to open-space installations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will module prices continue to rise in 2026?
No. The price increase seen in the first half of the year ended in July 2026. According to pvXchange, further price increases for TOPCon modules are unlikely; prices have stabilized and are showing a slight downward trend. The exception is back-contact modules, where demand exceeds supply.
Did the elimination of China's export tax rebate drive up prices?
No. According to pvXchange, the phase-out effective April 1, 2026, had been factored into prices for months. In addition, polysilicon prices fell during the same period. This was driven by production cuts in China and a surge in demand due to the energy crisis.
To what extent does the module price affect the total investment?
Modules account for about one-fifth of a turnkey system. A 10 percent change in module prices therefore shifts the total investment by about 2 percent—less than the impact of location, the self-consumption rate, or financing terms.
How much will a turnkey system cost in 2026?
The Fraunhofer ISE estimates costs of 1,000 to 2,000 euros per kilowatt-peak for rooftop systems up to 30 kilowatt-peak, 900 to 1,600 euros for commercial rooftop systems over 30 kilowatt-peak, and 700 to 900 euros for ground-mounted systems starting at one megawatt-peak.
Is it worth waiting for cheaper modules?
Not based on price trends alone. The potential decline is minor at the overall plant level, while two deadlines carry greater financial weight: The declining balance depreciation ends on December 31, 2027, and EEG grandfathering is contingent on the plant being commissioned by the end of 2026.
Should you wait for perovskite modules?
No. Perovskite tandem cells are physically capable of achieving efficiencies above 30 percent, but their manufacturing is challenging and their long-term stability has not been conclusively demonstrated. This technology does not provide a basis for a decision in 2026.
Conclusion
The trend in photovoltaic prices in 2026 unfolded in two phases: four months of increases, followed by stabilization. The commonly cited explanation—the elimination of China’s export tax rebates—does not hold up to scrutiny. The factors responsible were production cuts in China and a surge in demand, both of which have since subsided.
When it comes to investment decisions, the module price is the wrong factor to focus on. It accounts for one-fifth of the total cost and has been moving sideways. The deadlines for depreciation and grandfathering provisions have a much greater financial impact. The overview of ground-mounted photovoltaic systems shows how this affects large-scale projects.
Important Note: This article is intended solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Information regarding returns, yields, revenues, lease payments, and costs consists of sample calculations or market observations as of the date indicated and does not constitute a guarantee of future results; the actual values that can be achieved depend on location, system design, contract terms, and market developments. Price figures are market observations and do not constitute offers. The relevant module price index is published only in graphical form; values in cents per watt from secondary sources are intentionally not included here. For your specific situation, please consult a licensed tax advisor, attorney, or investment advisor. All information is provided without warranty. As of August 2026.
References
- pv magazine — Rise in solar module prices comes to a halt, Martin Schachinger (pvXchange), July 16, 2026
- pvXchange — Market Analysis, Solar Module Price Trends, Monthly Market Report
- Fraunhofer ISE — Current Facts About Photovoltaics in Germany: System Costs of Turnkey Installations
- § 7 EStG — Declining-balance depreciation, valid through December 31, 2027
As of August 2026. Related posts: PV Investment Costs in 2026, EEG Feed-in Tariffs in 2026, Photovoltaic Depreciation.
