Utility Bill Decree (Law 49/2026): ETS Refunds Continue Without EU Approval

Regulation

March 5

Written by the Logic Energy Editorial Team

Italy’s energy decree was intended to reimburse gas-fired power plants for their CO2 costs and drive down the wholesale price. Six months after it took effect, this very mechanism cannot be implemented—it hinges on an EU approval that has not yet been granted. What PV investors with exposure to Italy should take away from this.

The short answer

The “Decreto Bollette” has been in effect since April 19, 2026, as Law No. 49 of April 10, 2026. Its central mechanism—the reimbursement of ETS costs to gas-fired power plants under Article 6—has not yet taken effect: Article 6, paragraph 6, makes it contingent on approval from the European Commission, which had not been granted as of August 20, 2026. The reduction in gas network fees under Article 9 has also been suspended by the regulatory authority ARERA. On the other hand, the electricity tax reduction and the earmarked ASOS reduction, among other measures, are in effect; for the Conto Energia regulation, the implementing decree is still pending. For PV investors, this means: The feared impact on revenues has not materialized, but it is not off the table either—ARERA is currently restructuring the mechanism.

This version replaces the previous version, which assumed an EU blockade on April 29, 2026. That version was inaccurate—see the section on the status of the proceedings for details. All information in this article reflects the legal and factual situation as of August 20, 2026.

1. What is the Decreto Bollette?

The Decreto Bollette is Italy's energy pricing decree. It began as Emergency Decree DL 21/2026 of February 20, 2026, and has been in effect since April 19, 2026, as Law No. 49 of April 10, 2026. The package intervenes directly in the electricity market in several ways—primarily at the expense of electricity consumers and, in several instances, at the expense of renewable energy producers.

Anyone citing this statute should use the Italian citation format, because it includes the conversion process: decree-law No. 21 of February 20, 2026, converted, with amendments, by Law No. 49 of April 10, 2026. The phrase “with amendments” is not just a formality: For example, the ban on telemarketing was only added by the Chamber of Deputies during the conversion process.

The official title is longer than the short form “Decreto Bollette” suggests—and it reveals the full scope of the package:

"Urgent measures to reduce the cost of electricity and natural gas for households and businesses, to enhance business competitiveness and promote the decarbonization of industries, as well as urgent provisions to address virtual grid congestion and integrate data centers into the electric grid."

In German: Emergency measures to reduce electricity and gas costs for households and businesses, to promote business competitiveness, and to decarbonize industry—as well as emergency provisions to resolve virtual saturation in the power grids and to integrate data centers into the power system.

The second part of this title is almost always omitted from news reports. Yet that is the part that most directly affects solar project developers—more on that below.

The Council of Ministers (Consiglio dei Ministri) adopted the Provvedimento in February 2026; it was published in the Gazzetta Ufficiale No. 42 on February 20, 2026, under Editorial Code 26G00041, and entered into force on February 21. The parliamentary conversion took place through two votes of confidence (voto di fiducia): on March 31, 2026, in the Chamber of Deputies, and on April 8, 2026, in the Senate. The conversion law was published in the Official Gazette No. 90 on April 18, 2026.

Why Italy Is Stepping In

Italy pays high electricity prices compared to other European countries. In July 2026, the monthly average wholesale price in Italy was 157.04 euros per megawatt-hour—compared to 105.45 euros in Germany, 104.75 euros in Spain, and 95.23 euros in France. A significant portion of this is attributable to system charges, particularly the ASOS component used to finance renewable energy subsidies—precisely the item addressed by the decree.

The government is thus addressing two groups that are explicitly mentioned side by side in the decree’s title: famiglie e imprese — households and businesses. High energy costs in Italy have been a key issue for industrial competitiveness for years; the decree therefore links this relief to the goal of decarbonizing industries.

For PV investors, the other side of this equation is crucial. The decree does not lower generation costs; it merely shifts them. Anyone who wants to assess the impact of the Decreto Bollette on their portfolio must understand both sides of the equation.

2. The Core Mechanisms of the Decreto Bollette

The Decreto Bollette bundles several measures directly related to the electricity market; the status table in Section 6 lists them individually. Two of these are not currently applicable—one is awaiting EU approval, and one has been suspended by ARERA. A third will not take effect until 2027. The remaining measures are in effect.

Reimbursement of Gas Transmission Tariffs (Article 6, paragraph 2)

Starting January 1, 2027, ARERA is to reimburse gas power plant operators for variable gas transmission tariffs as well as certain system charges. The costs will be passed on to electricity consumers through new rate components. Unlike the ETS reimbursement, the ARERA documents available to date do not provide for an explicit approval requirement for this measure—which raises questions under state aid law that have not yet been resolved. We base this assessment on ARERA consultation document 221/2026/R/com and not on our own analysis of the regulatory text.

ETS Cost Reimbursement (Article 6, Paragraph 3)

Gas-fired power plants are to receive a reimbursement equivalent to the expected EU ETS costs of an efficient combined-cycle gas turbine power plant. The research firms ICIS, Equita SIM, and Intermonte estimated the potential impact in February and March 2026, assuming CO2 prices of 70 euros per metric ton, at 25 to 30 euros per megawatt-hour. These are model calculations by these firms based on the information available at the time; they are not official figures nor do they represent an actual outcome—no primary source provides a specific figure.

The legal situation is decisive: Article 6, paragraph 6, expressly links the effectiveness of paragraph 3 to prior authorization by the European Commission under Article 108, paragraph 3, of the TFEU. As of August 20, 2026, this authorization has not been granted. The mechanism is law that has been adopted but has not yet taken effect.

Conto Energia Cuts (Article 2)

Operators of PV systems with a capacity of more than 20 kilowatts who receive feed-in tariffs under the first through fourth Conto Energia programs and whose contracts expire on or after January 1, 2029, had until May 31, 2026, to voluntarily choose between two options. The text of the law expresses these as percentages of the previous tariff:

Option A: Premium rate set at 85 percent between the second half of 2026 and December 31, 2027, in exchange for a three-month contract extension.
Option B: Premium rate reduced to 70 percent during the same period, in exchange for a six-month extension.

According to data from the Ministry of the Environment, the eligible population consisted of approximately 52,400 facilities with a combined capacity of about 13.3 gigawatts. This is the theoretically eligible number, not the number of facilities that actually participated. The GSE launched the “Estendi Convenzione CE” portal on May 18, 2026. The May 31, 2026, deadline was a cut-off date—the GSE refers to it as a “termine perentorio.” There was no extension, either by law or by administrative decision.

Temporary Reduction in the Electricity Tax

The decree temporarily reduces the electricity tax for businesses to the EU-mandated minimum of 0.5 euros per megawatt-hour. For PV investors, the impact is minimal: 0.5 euros per megawatt-hour equates to 0.05 cents per kilowatt-hour. The comparative advantage of self-generated solar power over grid-purchased electricity is thus reduced only marginally—unlike the system fees, which are actually driving up the price of commercial electricity in Italy.

A note on the classification: Article 1, paragraph 1, of Law 49/2026 provides for relief for households—a special payment of 115 euros for recipients of the social bonus, with an expenditure limit of 315 million euros for 2026, implemented by ARERA Resolution 81/2026/R/eel dated March 17, 2026. We were unable to conclusively verify in the text of the law which specific provision of the decree the electricity tax reduction corresponds to; therefore, we list it without specifying the article number.

Earmarked Contributions Toward the ASOS Reduction (Article 3)

Article 3 increases the IRAP tax for energy companies by two percentage points for the years 2026 and 2027—affecting electricity generation, transmission, and distribution, as well as natural gas and petroleum products. The revenue is earmarked for reducing the ASOS surcharge for non-residential, non-energy-intensive consumption points.

There are two sets of figures circulating regarding the amount of these funds, and both are cited in official documents. The text of the regulation itself states “431.5 million euros in 2026, 501.1 million euros in 2027, and 68.4 million euros in 2028.” ARERA quotes this verbatim and in quotation marks in Delibera 98/2026/R/com—and applies it.

By contrast, the reading aids provided by the parliamentary services of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate cite the same paragraph as 469.6 / 545.4 / 74.5 million euros. This set of figures comes from the government’s technical justification; ARERA explicitly assigns the figure of 469.6 million euros to the allocation under Article 3, paragraph 1, not to the earmarked amount under paragraph 3. We therefore use the standard figure of 431.5 million euros for 2026 and cite the differing figures from the Chamber’s documentation in this regard. Anyone who cites only one of the two figures is not incorrect—but their citation is incomplete.

From an economic perspective, this amounts to a redistribution within the energy sector: Energy companies are financing relief for their commercial customers.

Ban on Telemarketing

During the amendment process, the Senate inserted a general ban on cold calling in the electricity and natural gas sales sector. Contracts entered into through unsolicited phone calls or text messages are therefore void. We have not verified the details of the implementation or the exact effective date using primary sources.

What Article 9 covers — and why no specific amount can be cited

Article 9 reduces transmission and distribution fees for natural gas for large end-users for the period from April 1 to December 31, 2026: for customers directly connected to the transmission network, for so-called “gasivori” on the distribution network, and for other customers with an annual consumption of more than 80,000 standard cubic meters. Excluded are gas-fired power plants, residential customers (clienti civili), and condominium associations (condomini).

The text of the law does not specify a fixed amount in euros for Article 9. The relief is legally limited to the proceeds that GSE and Snam will transfer to the CSEA compensation fund from the sale of gas stored in 2022 through September 30, 2026—minus 200 million euros reserved for the liquidity service under Article 10.

ARERA suspended the implementation of this measure through Delibera 98/2026/R/com of March 30, 2026, because it constitutes state aid that must be notified to the European Commission. The resolution states:

“To suspend the application of the measure referred to in Article 9 of Decree-Law 21/26, in accordance with Article 108(3) of the TFEU, until the European Commission adopts a decision on the compatibility of the aforementioned measure with the rules on state aid.”

The agency is therefore suspending the measure until the Commission has ruled on its compatibility with state aid law. As of August 2026, the suspension remained in effect without change.

The amount of approximately 409 million euros cited in the report is a government estimate, not a statutory figure. It is taken from the technical justification for the decree and is calculated as follows: From the sale of the gas stored in 2022—a total of 23.1 million megawatt-hours, according to ARERA Resolution 197/2026/R/gas—the government conservatively estimates 290 million euros for the GSE and 319 million euros for Snam, for a total of 609 million euros; of this amount, up to 200 million euros will go to the liquidity service under Article 10, leaving approximately 409 million euros. The Chamber of Deputies’ budget review dossier explicitly breaks down this calculation in this manner.

There are three caveats. First, the Senate Budget Office considers the estimate to be insufficiently substantiated and has requested evidence regarding the actual gas volumes and the previous year’s revenues. Second, ARERA has pointed out that the amount will not be finalized until the end of September 2026, as it depends on the actual sales revenues. Third, ARERA has pointed out that the benefit could be entirely negated because an equally large amount would have to be collected in parallel to cover the advance payment already made to Snam—the agency states that this risks nullifying the assumed benefit. A frequently cited figure of around 500 million euros cannot be traced back to any primary source.

Delibera 197/2026/R/gas, dated June 3, 2026, does not lift the suspension. It merely implements Article 9, paragraph 2—that is, the sale of gas through MGS auctions. Paragraph 3, which deals with the pass-through of tariffs, remains frozen. In practical terms, this means: The money flows, but the relief does not.

Virtual Network Congestion and Data Centers — The Overlooked Aspect

The second part of the official title concerns the virtual saturation of power grids: grid connection capacity that is reserved but never built. A portion of the reserved capacity is associated with projects that will never be connected to the grid. The decree establishes rules for releasing such unused reservations. We do not quantify the extent of this—we do not have a primary source for that information.

For PV project developers, this directly affects the question of grid connection: Anyone seeking a grid connection today is competing not only with actual projects but also with placeholders. At the same time, the decree regulates the integration of data centers — centri di elaborazione dati — into the power system. Both areas of regulation work toward the same goal: They determine who will receive a connection point in the coming years. We have not verified the implementing provisions against primary sources; we mention this section here because it appears in the decree’s title and is missing from the media coverage—and therefore do not evaluate it in the status table.

3. Impact on Solar Capture Prices and Merchant Plants

During midday hours, solar power often sets the price itself—in southern regions, it fell to zero for 106 hours in the second quarter of 2026. Revenue is driven by off-peak hours, when gas sets the price and the plant is still generating power. If the CO2 costs of gas-fired power plants were reimbursed, the price would drop precisely during those hours. That has not happened yet.

What the Capture Rates Actually Show

Measured values are more reliable than any model forecast. The Solar Captured Price refers to the average price of production hours weighted by solar generation; the Capture Rate compares this price to the zonal monthly average baseload price. ITALIA SOLARE collects these values on a market-zone-specific basis using GME market data.

Market Zone	Capture Rate, May 2026	Capture Rate, June 2026
Sardinia	58% (64.8 euros/MWh at a baseload price of 110.78 euros)	73% (92.4 euros/MWh)
Sicily	59% (66.3 euros/MWh)	—
Southern Italy, including Calabria	60% (66.9 euros/MWh)	—
Central-Southern	—	80 %
North	—	84% (112.4 euros/MWh)

Source: ITALIA SOLARE, Q2 2026 Market Report, based on GME market data. Monthly figures by market zone; not an annual average. “—” means: not reported in the analyzed report abstract. The rows should not be interpreted as a ranking of locations—the zones have different price levels and generation profiles.

In Sardinia, that represents a 15-percentage-point change within a single month—in the same market zone, with the same properties. The capture rate is therefore not a location-specific characteristic, but rather a monthly metric. Anyone who cites it as a key figure for a country or a year loses precisely the information that matters most. A comparison across market zones is also invalid: Northern Germany and Sardinia have different price levels and different generation profiles.

The mechanism behind it: zero-price hours instead of negative prices

Unlike Germany, Italy does not have negative day-ahead prices. Instead, excess supply manifests itself in hours with zero prices. The second quarter of 2026 comprises 2,184 hours; all figures below refer to the number of hours within this period, as specified for each market zone.

In the second quarter of 2026, Southern Italy, Calabria, and Sicily recorded 106 hours with a zone price of zero euros per megawatt-hour—4.9 percent of the hours in the quarter. Sardinia recorded 74 hours, and the north, 13. If the analysis is expanded to include prices up to 20 euros per megawatt-hour, southern Italy and Sicily accounted for 215 hours, or about 10 percent of the quarter—excluding Calabria, according to the source. All of these hours occurred during the day—not a single one at night.

For unhedged merchant plants, this is an accurate description of their revenue risk: it is concentrated precisely during the hours of peak production. A storage facility shifts exactly this energy to the evening hours, when gas sets the price—that is the economic crux of the co-location issue.

Why the PUN 2026 Has Risen

The Italian wholesale price did not fall in 2026; rather, it rose significantly. The PUN GME Index averaged 157.04 euros per megawatt-hour in July 2026—38.8 percent higher than in July 2025 and the highest level since March 2023. Throughout 2026, the price fluctuated between 114.41 euros in February and this July high. In the week of August 10–16, 2026, the weekly average was 172.17 euros.

This increase is not a result of the decree, but rather of the price of natural gas. The Italian gas index (IGI) reached its highest level since its introduction in July 2026, at 56.61 euros per megawatt-hour. Anyone who attributes the PUN trend in 2026 to the Decreto Bollette is confusing coincidence with causation.

A methodological note: Since 2025, the PUN Index GME has been a reference index under Article 13 of Legislative Decree 210/21 and is no longer a billing price for end customers. It is calculated every quarter hour as a volume-weighted average of the zone prices; the monthly values listed are arithmetic averages of these quarter-hour values over the course of the month.

How the Risk Is Distributed

The impact of a mechanism coming into effect was unevenly distributed:

Pure merchant-generation projects without a PPA and without the FER-X surcharge would be directly affected by the decline in revenue.
Existing facilities that had already been financed experienced a gradual decline, depending on their refinancing structure.
Development projects face financing barriers because bankable cash flows are shrinking.

Added to this is a regulatory risk factor that will remain in place regardless of the outcome of the proceedings. When assessing returns, it is no longer just technical metrics that matter, but also the reliability of the legal framework at the investment location.

4. The PPA Market and Battery Storage: What's Actually Changing

A government subsidy for the CO2 costs of fossil-fuel power plants would affect PPAs and storage arbitrage in two different ways. A pay-as-produced PPA depends on the level of the capture price: if it falls, the fair value of new contracts decreases. Storage depends on the spread between midday and evening prices. The ETS mechanism would drive both down at the same time.

PPA Market Under Pressure

Solar PPAs in Italy are based on Capture prices. If these prices fall, the fair value prices of new contracts are also adjusted accordingly. Pexapark, a commercial price data provider, estimates the fair value of a ten-year pay-as-produced solar PPA in Italy, with delivery beginning in January 2027, at 58.7 euros per megawatt-hour. This is a model value provided by the vendor; it is neither a traded price nor an official price. The vendor’s website does not list a publication date; accessed on August 20, 2026.

Two legal questions arise regarding existing PPAs. First: Do “change-in-law” clauses apply when government intervention alters the revenue base? That depends on the specific terms of the contract. Second: Customers with fixed-price PPAs have already factored ETS costs into their prices—new system fees to finance an ETS reimbursement could burden them a second time. Law firms cite Article 1467 of the Codice Civile, which addresses excessive burden due to unforeseen circumstances, as a possible legal remedy.

Battery Storage: Where the Arbitrage Margin Arises

The mechanism of arbitrage erosion is easy to describe. ETS costs are a component of a gas-fired power plant’s spot market bid; we do not have any reliable figures for this component from any primary source. If this component were eliminated, prices would fall during precisely those hours when gas sets the price—and in Italy, these are predominantly the evening hours.

This narrows the gap between midday and evening—that is, the spread on which a storage facility relies. The seasonal impact would be significant: The measure would hit the summer hardest, when solar energy sets midday prices and only the evening peaks are dominated by gas.

Installed storage capacity in Italy continues to grow, while PV-coupled additions are declining: 914 megawatt-hours in the first half of 2026, compared to 973 in the same period the previous year. We do not have a year-over-year comparison for total additions. As of June 30, 2026, 19,334 megawatt-hours of storage capacity were installed across 7,983 megawatts of power; 1,350 megawatt-hours were added in the first half of the year, 436 of which were stand-alone capacity from just eight facilities. These eight facilities illustrate just how heavily the stand-alone segment is concentrated on a small number of large-scale projects.

5. EU State Aid Review: Why Approval Has Not Yet Been Granted

The ETS reimbursement to gas-fired power plants requires approval from the European Commission, and this is a significant hurdle. We are not aware of any approved scheme that would involve the reimbursement of direct ETS costs to electricity producers. The only comparable case for which we have primary evidence concerns indirect ETS costs for electricity-intensive consumers—a different type of state aid arrangement with a different justification.

Why Lawyers Find the Approval Process Difficult

The law firm ADVANT Nctm reviewed the measure in March 2026 and raised four objections. These reflect the firm’s position; the first point is supported by primary evidence:

No precedent. The best-documented compensation scheme to date is the German state aid case SA.36103, approved on July 17, 2013, with a budget of 756 million euros for the years 2013 through 2020. It concerns compensation for indirect ETS costs incurred by electricity-intensive consumers—not reimbursement to producers.
The "polluter pays" principle. The decree provides relief to those who emit CO2 without requiring anything in return.
No environmental requirements. According to the law firm, approved offset schemes require energy management systems, efficiency measures, and investments in decarbonization. The decree contains none of these provisions.
Conflict with market coupling rules. The measure interferes with EU rules on capacity allocation and congestion management.

However, a legal assessment is not the same as the status of the proceedings—and the four objections reflect the law firm’s position, not a decision by the Commission.

What the procedure actually entails

Two points are important for the timeline, and they are often misrepresented. If Italy has notified the measure or is yet to do so, the following applies: Upon receipt of a complete notification, the Commission has two months to conduct a preliminary review—as provided for in Article 4(5) of Regulation (EU) 2015/1589. There is no statutory deadline for a subsequent formal investigation procedure under Article 108(2) of the TFEU; Article 9(6) of the Regulation merely requires the Commission to endeavor to reach a decision within eighteen months of the opening of the procedure.

For investors, this means that anyone expecting a quick resolution is counting against the way the process is structured. A period of uncertainty lasting several quarters is not unusual in this scenario—and during this time, it is difficult to secure financing for new Italian merchant projects.

6. Status of the Process in August 2026: What Has Become of the ETS Mechanism

Six months after the decree took effect, the ETS refund under Article 6, paragraph 3, has not yet taken effect. There has been neither approval nor a rejection, nor has Italy initiated a formal investigation or withdrawn the measure. No publicly available state aid case number can be found. The mechanism remains in limbo.

A Correction on Our Part

An earlier version of this article stated that the European Commission had indirectly blocked the ETS amendment on April 29, 2026, through a communication on the state aid framework for the Mediterranean and Hormuz crises. This statement was inaccurate, and we hereby expressly correct it.

On April 29, 2026, the Commission adopted the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF), published as C(2026) 2947 final in the Official Journal C/2026/2593. This framework allows for state aid in the agriculture, fisheries, and transportation sectors to cover additional costs resulting from rising fuel and fertilizer prices, and raises the aid intensity for electricity-intensive users under Section 4.5 of the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework from 50 to up to 70 percent. It remains in effect until December 31, 2026. It contains no mention of the Italian scheme.

In press release IP/26/894 issued on the same day, the Commission states, on the contrary, that it is prepared to consider, on a case-by-case basis, temporary measures that may include subsidizing the fuel costs of gas-fired power generation. There is no question of a blockade.

What is relevant for Italy at METSAF

A key design condition is that measures taken under this framework may only offset specific increases in gas costs; they do not cover ETS compliance costs and may not use the ETS price as a benchmark—so that the obligations and incentives of the emissions trading system are preserved.

This condition excludes the Italian measure, in its original form, from the METSAF. However, it does not constitute a decision finding the decree incompatible. The distinction is significant for the assessment: limiting the scope of a crisis framework does not amount to a rejection under state aid law.

Italy is restructuring the mechanism rather than abandoning it

ARERA has structured its draft precisely around this condition. With Delibera 171/2026/R/eel of May 15, 2026, the agency initiated the implementation process and set September 30, 2026, as the deadline for its completion—specifically so that the mechanism could be launched immediately upon the Commission’s decision.

In consultation document 222/2026/R/eel dated June 25, 2026, ARERA then restructured the measure: Instead of an ETS cost reimbursement, the draft provides for a cap on eligible gas costs modeled after the Iberian mechanism, which the Commission had approved as SA.102599 and extended as SA.106738. The apparent contradiction with the previous section is only superficial: The Iberian mechanism focuses on gas costs, not on ETS costs—which is precisely why it is eligible for approval, whereas Article 6(3) was not. ARERA stipulates as a binding condition that the mechanism must not, either directly or indirectly, constitute a free allocation of ETS allowances or a reimbursement of ETS costs. The consultation period ended on July 27, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, no follow-up resolution had been issued.

An Overview of the Status of Individual Measures

Mechanism	Standard	Status as of August 20, 2026
ETS Reimbursement to Gas-Fired Power Plants	Art. 6, para. 3	Not effective — Approval under Article 108(3) TFEU is pending; ARERA is transitioning to a gas cap model
Gas Transportation Reimbursement	Art. 6, para. 2	Resolved; intended to take effect on January 1, 2027; according to ARERA documents, there is no explicit reservation of approval
Relief on Gas Network Fees for Large Consumers	Art. 9, para. 3	Issued by ARERA Resolution 98/2026/R/com dated March 30, 2026; unchanged as of August 2026
Gas Sales Through MGS Auctions	Art. 9, para. 2	Implemented by ARERA Resolution 197/2026/R/gas dated June 3, 2026; revenue must be remitted to CSEA by September 30, 2026
Conto-Energia Election Option	Art. 2, paras. 1–3	Deadline expired on May 31, 2026; GSE results not published
Exit and Repowering Options	Art. 2, para. 4	The deadline is September 30, 2026; implementing rules are not yet available
Earmarked ASOS Reduction	Art. 3, para. 3	Effective; the statutory text specifies 431.5 million euros for 2026
Reduction in the Commercial Electricity Tax	Standard not fully verified	In effect; EU minimum rate: 0.5 euros/MWh
Social Assistance Benefit	Art. 1, para. 1	In effect; 115 euros per eligible person, 315 million euros for 2026
Ban on Telemarketing	inserted during the conversion process	Effective as of June 19, 2026

The Conto Energia deadline, which is currently in effect

For operators of existing facilities, it is not the expired selection period that is relevant at this time, but rather the current one. Article 2, paragraph 4, allows for the option to opt out of the Conto Energia program until September 30, 2026. The conditions are set forth in the law:

Effective January 1, 2028, capped at a total of 10 gigawatts.
Compensation equal to 90 percent of the present value of the remaining cash flows, estimated based on the average historical production over the past five years.
Payments in equal installments over ten years; the interest rate may not exceed six percent.
In return, a complete repowering must be carried out between January 1, 2028, and December 31, 2030, resulting in at least double the generation capacity. For ground-mounted systems in areas classified as agricultural and for non-ground-mounted systems, a 30 percent increase is sufficient.
A competitive bidding process must be conducted at the GSE by June 30, 2027; bids must be submitted as a percentage discount.

On May 27, 2026, the GSE published the economic valuation parameters, thereby specifying the statutory upper limit: production estimate as the average for the years 2021 through 2025, a discount rate of eight percent, and an interest rate of six percent on installment payments. Noteworthy is the discrepancy with the legislative rationale: The government’s technical explanation assumed a discount rate of ten percent. A reduction of two percentage points noticeably increases the present value and, consequently, the compensation per facility.

The real problem for operators is a different one. The Ministry of the Environment’s implementing decree pursuant to Article 2, paragraph 6, was to be issued within ninety days of the law’s entry into force—that is, by May 22, 2026. As of August 20, 2026, it had not been issued. The GSE itself states in the future tense that the implementation modalities would be announced with this decree and announces its own procedural rules “in the coming months.” Anyone wishing to exercise the exit option by September 30, 2026, must therefore base their decision solely on the GSE parameters dated May 27, 2026, and nothing else.

A note on the distinction: The figure “10 gigawatts” appears twice in Italian renewable energy law. Here, it refers to the phase-out quota under Article 2, paragraph 4—and elsewhere, to direct access for plants up to one megawatt under the FER-X Decree. The two must be strictly distinguished.

7. The EU Energy Storage Market and a Comparison with Germany

While Italy is imposing regulatory burdens on its solar sector, the energy storage market in the EU is growing at a record pace. Germany provides a contrast here—not in terms of location conditions, but in the direction of regulatory intervention. When comparing market figures, it also matters which geographic breakdown the statistics use.

The EU-27 Storage Market in 2025

On January 28, 2026, SolarPower Europe released the figures for the EU-27: 27.1 gigawatt-hours of newly installed battery storage, a 45 percent increase from the previous year’s 18.7 gigawatt-hours. Cumulatively, the EU reached 77.3 gigawatt-hours. Utility-scale storage accounted for 15 gigawatt-hours, or 55 percent of new installations. The five largest markets were Germany with 6.6, Italy with 4.9, Bulgaria with 2.5, the Netherlands with 1.7, and Spain with 1.4 gigawatt-hours.

Italy has fallen in this ranking. The 4.9 gigawatt-hours represent a decline from 6.0 gigawatt-hours in 2024. The Italian survey points in the same direction but measures a different metric: According to figures from ITALIA SOLARE based on Terna data, the expansion of PV-coupled storage declined to 914 megawatt-hours in the first half of 2026. This half-year data series cannot be compared with SolarPower Europe’s annual figures—it is a different survey, covering a different time period and a different segment of the market.

In an update dated June 23, 2026, SolarPower Europe reports 36 gigawatt-hours of new capacity for Europe—that is, the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine, and Turkey—and, for the first time, over 100 gigawatt-hours of cumulative capacity, with an expectation of over 50 gigawatt-hours for 2026. The two sets of figures do not contradict each other; they measure different areas. When presented side by side without specifying the scope, they create an apparent contradiction.

Germany as a comparable market

In 2025, Germany added approximately 16.2 gigawatts of net photovoltaic capacity. This is the net increase in direct current capacity according to statistics from the Federal Network Agency based on the Market Master Data Register, distributed across approximately 863,000 new systems. The German Solar Industry Association reports a gross increase of 17.6 gigawatts-peak for the same period.

The difference is not a late report, but a different metric: The gross figure represents the installed module capacity, while the net figure represents the net increase in capacity after adjusting for decommissioned capacity. When comparing the two values side by side, you must specify which metric is being used—otherwise, the confusion will recur in the next update.

Cumulative capacity thus reached approximately 117 gigawatts. Gross solar power generation in 2025 totaled about 87 billion kilowatt-hours. Measured in terms of grid feed-in—the metric used by the Federal Statistical Office—the figure was 70.1 billion kilowatt-hours, or 16.0 percent of the total domestic grid feed-in of 438.2 billion kilowatt-hours. The difference between the two figures is primarily due to self-consumption; it is not an exact calculation because the two figures come from different statistical systems.

There are two pitfalls to consider. First, natural gas is listed right next to it in the same Destatis table, with 70.6 billion kilowatt-hours and 16.1 percent—the two figures are regularly confused. Second, the widely cited claim that photovoltaics will have surpassed lignite for the first time in 2025 comes from the Fraunhofer ISE’s net electricity generation calculations, not from Destatis’s grid feed-in data. In the Destatis table, coal is not broken down into lignite and bituminous coal—making it impossible to make this comparison using that metric.

We discuss the structural changes in the German market in our article on photovoltaic expansion in Germany; you can find information on feed-in rates and the status of the 2027 EEG amendment in the guide to EEG feed-in rates for 2026.

Meanwhile, the Italian market is also shifting away from rooftop installations toward ground-mounted systems. In the first half of 2026, Italy added 3,093 megawatts of capacity. Compared to the first half of 2025, the residential segment (under 20 kilowatts) fell by 23 percent to 556 megawatts, while the commercial segment (between 20 kilowatts and one megawatt) grew by 22 percent to 1,154 megawatts, and the utility-scale segment (one megawatt and above) also grew by 22 percent to 1,383 megawatts. As of June 30, 2026, the installed capacity stood at 46,606 megawatts.

What Makes the Contrast

The difference between the two markets lies not in the level of support, but in the focus of the policy. The 2027 EEG Amendment, the government’s draft of which was approved by the Federal Cabinet on July 29, 2026, targets future installations. Italy, on the other hand, has used the Conto Energia program to address the revenues of existing installations, albeit on a voluntary basis.

There are two caveats. First, the German draft has not yet become law: As of August 20, 2026, no draft legislation had been submitted to either the Bundestag or the Bundesrat, and parliamentary deliberations are scheduled for September 2026. Second, at this stage of the draft, it has not been definitively clarified how the transitional provisions will apply to existing facilities.

Nevertheless, this difference remains crucial for assessing a portfolio’s risk. Prospective regulatory changes can be priced in. Interventions in current revenue streams cannot be priced in—they increase the required risk premium for the entire market.

8. Implications for PV Investors

The Decreto Bollette shows that regulatory predictability is not a minor factor, but rather determines whether an investment pays off. A mechanism that was enacted six months ago but has not yet taken effect undermines planning certainty without ever having moved a single euro. This has three consequences for investors with exposure to Italy.

Do not factor in the revenue impact until it has been decided

It is currently impossible to estimate the price-reducing effect on the PUN. According to ARERA, the scope, cap, and duration of the mechanism depend on the outcome of the discussions with the Commission. Until further notice, calculate Italian procurement and revenue items without factoring in this effect—and at the same time, factor in a premium to account for the possibility that it may be implemented in a modified form. It is not possible to provide a reliable estimate of the remaining PUN effect based on publicly available data; we are therefore deliberately refraining from providing a figure.

Review Existing PPA Contracts for Changes in the Law

Review existing contracts based on three questions: Does the contract contain a “change in law” clause? Are ETS costs explicitly factored into the price? Are there adjustment rights in the event of government intervention in the merit order? This is particularly relevant for plants with remaining terms of less than ten years that do not have a government-guaranteed difference contract.

Co-location as a fundamental building block, not as an add-on

The measured zero-price hours in southern Italy illustrate what has long been evident in terms of market structure: Standalone generation facilities without storage lose value in saturated markets, particularly during their most productive hours. An integrated approach combining PV and storage taps into multiple revenue streams and reduces dependence on a single price signal.

This applies to both Italy and Germany, where the planned transition to differential contracts would impose new requirements on the revenue structure. You can find the complete market analysis of feed-in mechanisms, FER-X auctions, and storage programs in Italy in our article on PV investment in Italy in 2026. Our analysis of the European solar market shows how the revenue situation compares across Europe.

We'll calculate your exposure to Italy

Whether and how regulatory risk should be factored into your investment analysis depends on your specific figures. Logic Energy designs, builds, and operates photovoltaic and energy storage systems for investors with at least 100,000 euros in equity. The contractual partner for direct PV investments is mediplan Helm e.K., which is subject to personal liability of its owners.

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Frequently Asked Questions About the Decreto Bollette

What is the Decreto Bollette?

The Decreto Bollette is Italy’s energy pricing decree: Decree-Law 21/2026 of February 20, 2026, which has been in effect since April 19, 2026, as Law No. 49 of April 10, 2026. It bundles several measures directly related to the electricity market. Two of these measures are not currently applicable, while a third will not take effect until 2027.

Is the ETS reimbursement for gas-fired power plants currently in effect?

No. Article 6, paragraph 6, makes the effectiveness of the reimbursement contingent upon prior approval by the European Commission pursuant to Article 108, paragraph 3, of the TFEU. As of August 20, 2026, such approval had not been granted. There is also no decision denying the request and no publicly available state aid case number.

Did the European Commission block the mechanism?

No. On April 29, 2026, the Commission adopted the Middle East Crisis Framework (METSAF), which covers agriculture, fisheries, and transportation and makes no mention of the Italian regulation. In a statement issued the same day, the Commission indicated its willingness to examine, on a case-by-case basis, measures to subsidize fuel costs for natural gas-fired power generation.

What is the remaining deadline for Conto-Energia operators?

Until September 30, 2026, operators may, pursuant to Article 2, paragraph 4, declare their withdrawal from the Conto Energia regime, effective as of 2028 and capped at 10 gigawatts. The Ministry of the Environment’s implementing decree was not available as of August 20, 2026; to date, only the GSE parameters dated May 27, 2026, are applicable.

How much is the compensation under the exit option?

Ninety percent of the present value of the residual cash flows, estimated based on average production from 2021 to 2025 and discounted at 8 percent. Payment will be made in equal installments over ten years at an interest rate not exceeding 6 percent. In return, the facility will undergo a complete repowering, resulting in at least double the production capacity.

What is the amount specified in Article 9?

The text of the law does not specify a fixed amount: the relief is limited to the actual proceeds from the sale received by the CSEA compensation fund. The figure of approximately 409 million euros currently being cited is a government estimate. The final amount will not be determined until the end of September 2026; ARERA has suspended the measure in any case.

What are the solar capture rates in Italy?

In May 2026, the capture rate was 58 percent in Sardinia, 59 percent in Sicily, and 60 percent in Southern Italy, including Calabria. In June, the rate reached 73 percent in Sardinia and 84 percent in the north. These figures represent monthly values by market zone and are not annual averages; they cannot be compared across zones.

Why did the price of electricity in Italy rise in 2026 instead of falling?

Because the price of gas has risen. In July 2026, the PUN GME index averaged 157.04 euros per megawatt-hour, 38.8 percent higher than in the same month a year earlier. At the same time, the Italian gas index (IGI) reached a record high of 56.61 euros per megawatt-hour. The decree is not the cause of this.

Why is Germany a relevant comparable market?

Because the nature of the intervention differs. The 2027 amendment to Germany’s Renewable Energy Act (EEG)—approved by the cabinet on July 29, 2026, with the parliamentary process still pending—targets new installations. Italy, through the Conto Energia program, has focused on the revenues from existing installations. Prospective changes can be factored into pricing, but interventions in current revenue streams cannot.

References

Important Note: This article is intended solely for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. Information regarding returns, income, proceeds, lease payments, and costs consists of sample calculations or market observations as of the date indicated and does not constitute a guarantee of future results; the actual values that can be achieved depend on location, system design, contract terms, and market developments. The legal situation described reflects the status as of the date indicated. Where reference is made to drafts, these do not constitute applicable law; changes may occur during the further legislative process. For your individual situation, please consult a licensed tax advisor, attorney, or investment advisor. All information is provided without warranty. As of August 20, 2026.

Regarding the specific legal status: The ETS reimbursement under Article 6, paragraph 3, of Law 49/2026 is subject to approval by the European Commission; the relief under Article 9 has been suspended by ARERA; and the implementing provisions for Article 2 are not yet complete. The German EEG Amendment of 2027 is currently in the government draft stage, with the parliamentary process not yet completed. Information regarding these regulations reflects the current status of the proceedings, not current or applicable law. Market data from ICIS, Equita SIM, Intermonte, and Pexapark are model calculations provided by private vendors, not official statistics; each is identified by its respective provider.

Logic Energy Editorial Team https://www.logicenergy.de/